Common use of Traffic Forecast Clause in Contracts

Traffic Forecast. Three Forecast Scenarios Three different air passenger traffic scenarios, based on market and macroeconomic factors were produced for Bermuda Airport. Two scenarios [A,C] forecast separately each of the four traffic segments reported in the previous section while scenario BTA base case is based on outbound Bermudians segment and the Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA) latest forecast of inbound air visitors, which takes in account the estimated impact of the America’s Cup on Bermuda in terms of additional air visitors arrivals.  Scenario  CAGR 2000- 2014  CAGR  2014-2051  A  -1.2%  2.4%  BTA base case  1.2%  C  0.8% Outbound Bermudians were forecast in each of the three scenarios. Their growth is based on the Bermudian GDP and the widely recognized relationship between the GDP growth and the propensity to fly growth of the island-based population. VFR and Business passengers in scenario A and C were forecast by undertaking an econometric regression analysis of their relationship with the Bermudian GDP. Inbound tourists in Scenarios A and C were forecast by estimating the total tourists from USA, Canada, Europe and rest of the World to the Caribbean area (including Bermuda). Bermuda market share of these tourists was estimated for each originating country group.  Scenario A assumes a market share recovery to the average 2000-2012 levels  Scenario C assumes a continuation of the historic trends for every country group except for the USA. In scenario C the number of American air travelers to Bermuda is assumed to be stable at 2012 levels in future years. For the purpose of the business model Scenario BTA base case has been adopted as it is consistent with the BTA room and inbound traffic forecasts and America’s Cup impact on Bermuda.  Scenario BTA base case takes in account the outbound Bermuda traffic and the inbound component of traffic. The inbound component is sourced from the Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA) inbound air visitors forecast which includes the estimated effects of the America’s Cup in terms of additional air visitors to Bermuda. As this forecast covers the period up to 2024, from 2025 onwards traffic was assumed to grow in line with Scenario C until 2040, when it was assumed that without further investment in accommodation infrastructure, inbound air visitors will not continue to grow.

Traffic Forecast. Three Forecast Scenarios Three different air passenger traffic scenarios, based on market and macroeconomic factors were produced for Bermuda Airport. Two scenarios [A,C] forecast separately each of the four traffic segments reported in the previous section while scenario BTA base case is based on outbound Bermudians segment and the Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA) latest forecast of inbound air visitors, which takes in account the estimated impact of the America’s Cup on Bermuda in terms of additional air visitors arrivals.  ▪ Scenario  ▪ CAGR 2000- 2014  ▪ CAGR  ▪ 2014-2051  ▪ A  ▪ -1.2%  ▪ 2.4%  ▪ BTA base case  ▪ 1.2%  ▪ C  ▪ 0.8% Outbound Bermudians were forecast in each of the three scenarios. Their growth is based on the Bermudian GDP and the widely recognized relationship between the GDP growth and the propensity to fly growth of the island-based population. VFR and Business passengers in scenario A and C were forecast by undertaking an econometric regression analysis of their relationship with the Bermudian GDP. Inbound tourists in Scenarios A and C were forecast by estimating the total tourists from USA, Canada, Europe and rest of the World to the Caribbean area (including Bermuda). Bermuda market share of these tourists was estimated for each originating country group.  • Scenario A assumes a market share recovery to the average 2000-2012 levels  • Scenario C assumes a continuation of the historic trends for every country group except for the USA. In scenario C the number of American air travelers to Bermuda is assumed to be stable at 2012 levels in future years. For the purpose of the business model Scenario BTA base case has been adopted as it is consistent with the BTA room and inbound traffic forecasts and America’s Cup impact on Bermuda.  • Scenario BTA base case takes in account the outbound Bermuda traffic and the inbound component of traffic. The inbound component is sourced from the Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA) inbound air visitors forecast which includes the estimated effects of the America’s Cup in terms of additional air visitors to Bermuda. As this forecast covers the period up to 2024, from 2025 onwards traffic was assumed to grow in line with Scenario C until 2040, when it was assumed that without further investment in accommodation infrastructure, inbound air visitors will not continue to grow.