SKRIPSI SARJANA EKONOMI

KEMENTERIAN RISET TEKNOLOGI DAN PENDIDIKAN TINGGI FAKULTAS EKONOMI DAN BISNIS UNIVERSITAS AIRLANGGA

PROGRAM STUDI : EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN

DAFTAR NO. : ……………………………….....

ABSTRAK

SKRIPSI SARJANA EKONOMI

NAMA : XXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX

NIM 041411131048

TAHUN PENYUSUNAN 2019

JUDUL:

DAMPAK ASEAN-INDIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (AIFTA) TERHADAP TRADE CREATION DAN TRADE DIVERSION: STUDI KASUS EKSPOR TOTAL, PERTANIAN, DAN MANUFAKTUR INDONESIA PERIODE 2008-2017

ISI:

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak dari pembentukan blok

perdagangan ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) terhadap efek trade creation ataukah trade diversion. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model gravitasi yang diujikan pada 36 negara sebagai sampel selama periode tahun 2008-2017 dengan menggunakan data ekspor total, pertanian serta manufaktur Indonesia yang diestimasi menggunakan Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) atau panel dinamis. Hasil yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini mengindikasikan bahwa pembentukan AIFTA menciptakan efek trade diversion pada ekspor total, pertanian serta manufaktur Indonesia. Di sisi lain variabel GDP eksportir, GDP importir, jumlah penduduk eksportir, jumlah penduduk importir, dan jarak secara signifikan mempengaruhi ekspor total, pertanian, dan manufaktur Indonesia.

KATA KUNCI : ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA), Trade creation, Trade diversion, Model gravitasi, Generalized Method of Moment (GMM).

SUBJEK/OBJEK PENELITIAN : Total GDP eksportir dan importir, Jumlah

Penduduk eksportir dan importir, Jarak, dan

Dummy intra kawasan AIFTA.

DAERAH PENELITIAN : ASEAN-India, dan 25 negara mitra dagang AIFTA.

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MINISTRY OF RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY AND HIGHER EDUCATION

FACULTY ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS AIRLANGGA UNIVERSITY

STUDY COURSE : ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT

REGISTER NO. : …………………………………….

ABSTRACT

BACHELOR THESIS OF ECONOMICS

NAME : XXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX

NIM 041411131048

ARRANGED YEAR 2019

TITTLE:

THE IMPACT OF ASEAN-INDIA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (AIFTA) ON TRADE CREATION AND TRADE DIVERSION: CASE STUDY OF TOTAL, AGRICULTURE, AND MANUFACTURE EXPORTS OF INDONESIA PERIOD 2008-2017

CONTENT:

The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) trade block establishment on the effect of trade creation or trade diversion. The model used in this research is the gravity model that was tested across 36 countries as a sample of 2008-2017 period. It was tested by using the total, agriculture and manufacture exports data of Indonesia which were estimated by using Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) or dynamic panel. The result which was obtained in this research indicated that AIFTA establishment caused Trade Diversion effect on the total, agriculture and manufacture exports.of Indonesia. On the other hand the variable GDP of exporter, GDP of importers, population of exporter, population of importers, and distance are significantly used affect on total, agriculture and manufacture exports.of Indonesia.

KEYWORDS : ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA), Trade creation, Trade diversion, Gravity model, Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). RESEARCH SUBJECT/OBJECT : GDP of exporter and importirs, Population of exporter and importirs, Distance, and Intra-Regional AIFTA

dummy.

RESEARCH AREA : ASEAN-India, and 25 AIFTA trade partner countries.

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