What is a Theory of Change?. Briefly, a theory of change is: • A description of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. • It defines long-term goals or the desired future, the undesirable present and works out what lies in between • In particular it seeks to specify the necessary preconditions for progressing from one stage to the next • A theory of change explains the process of change by outlining causal linkages in an initiative, i.e., its shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes. • The identified changes are envisaged as showing each outcome in logical relationship to all the others, as well as chronological flow. • The links between outcomes are explained by statements of why one outcome is thought to be a prerequisite for another. • The theory of change enables stakeholders to envision the desired outcomes before they decide on forms of intervention to achieve those outcomes. • Theory of change can begin at any stage of an initiative, depending on the intended use. However, a theory developed at the outset is best at informing the planning of an initiative. • Having worked out a change model, agents of change and stakeholders can make more informed decisions about strategy and tactics. • As monitoring and evaluation data become available, stakeholders can periodically refine the Theory of Change as the evidence indicates. • The theory of change requires a contextual/situational analysis which is essentially to work out the relationship between context and agency. The context constrains and enables action/agency. Such an exercise includes an analysis of power, ideas and people as agents or change or protectors of the status quo. • Some important questions include: o What are the key forces constrain and enable change? What economic or political interests are threatened/promoted by the change? o Which groups are drivers/blockers/undecided? Is their power formal (e.g. elected politicians) or informal (traditional leaders, influential individuals)? o Which individuals are likely to play key roles, either as allies or opponents? Neat as it may sound, theories of change are exactly that, they are theories and they cannot predict the future, but they are useful to enable us to organise our thinking and actions to optimise the possibilities for achieving the desired outcomes
