事件:民生教育集团(1569.HK)宣布以 9180 万人民币收购曲阜昌永 51%股权,通过该项收购持有山东曲阜远东职业技术学院 51%举办者权益。收购将分三阶段进行,首阶段收购并购目标 51%权益,交割后 6 个月内收购 14%权益,共计 65%权益。远东职业技术学院目前在校生人数 5417 人,以大专学生为主。
民生教育收购山东一所高职学院
事件:民生教育集团(0000.XX)宣布以 9180 万人民币收购曲阜昌永 51%股权,通过该项收购持有山东曲阜远东职业技术学院 51%举办者权益。收购将分三阶段进行,首阶段收购并购目标 51%权益,交割后 6 个月内收购 14%权益,共计 65%权益。远东职业技术学院目前在校生人数 5417 人,以大专学生为主。
该笔并购估值便宜
民生教育集团(0000.XX)以 9180 万人民币收购目标学校 51%权益,相当于整体估值 1.8 亿人民币,而远东职业技术学院 2017 年税前净利润
1116.3 万人民币,交易对价相当于约 16 倍 PE;而截至 2018 年 10 月 31
日,远东职业技术学院税前净利润 1369.5 万人民币,已超过去年全年,
并且学校账上有 4000 余万现金,相当于整笔收购净现金对价 1.4 亿人民
币,相对于 2018 年的市盈率只有不到 10 倍,估值相当便宜。完成并购后,民生教育集团将在山东省拥有一所大专、一所中专及两所高中,实现协同 效应。
该笔收购民生教育集团将分三期付款,第一期款项为 1836 万元人民币,按照双方的托管安排,民生教育集团完成第一期付款后集团及可以享有目标学校 51%的净利润。收购将分三阶段进行,首阶段收购并购目标 51%权益,交割后 6 个月内收购 14%权益,共计 65%权益,这 65%权益都将按照总体 1.8 亿人民币估值对价进行。而完成收购 65%权益后的 3-5 年内,民生教育集团将有权选择是否收购剩下的 35%权益。
目标学校增长有空间
远东职业技术学院位于xxxxxx,0000/2019 学年在校生人数 5417 人,相对于 2017/2018 学年在校生人数仅轻微增长 2.77%,主要由于学校校舍使用率已满。民生教育集团收购之后,有意向向学校提供最多不超过
1.7 亿人民币贷款,用来建设新校区。新校区位于曲阜高铁站附近,已动工,占地 250 亩,顺利的话预计 2019 年新学年开始可以启用。新校区将提供 4000-5000 个学生容量。
远东职业技术学院新校区建成后,土地面积将达到升本科的门槛,集团计划在未来 3-5 年内启动学校的专升本。目前远东职业技术学院学费 4300-
9680 人民币/年(视乎专业和学制不同),2019 年将调整学费,预计上升
10%左右。上一次调整学费是在 2016 年,调升 7%左右。
民促法实施条例送审稿出台之后,集团并购步伐并未减速
8 月 15 日民促法实施细则修订案送审稿出台之后,民生教育集团宣布了
两笔并购(8 月底民生教育宣布了签约收购云南大学滇池学院 51%股权),并购步伐并未减速。集团预期未来每年并购 2-3 间学校,以本科学校为主。
截至 2018 年 6 月 30 日,集团账上现金及现金等价物尚余 19.5 亿人民币,
香港 教育行业
民办高等教育
2018 年 12 月 5 日 买入
目标价 HKD2.64(维持)
收盘价 (29 Nov 18) HKD1.41
上升/下降空间 87.2%
恒生指数 26451.03
总市值 (HKD 亿) 56.65
52 周最高/最低 (HKD) 2.39/1.13
资料来源: Wind,国信证券(香港)研究部整理
近一年股价涨跌幅
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
民生教育 恒生指数
主要财务比率 | |||
2016 | 2017 | 2018H1 | |
毛利率 | 58.11% | 58.33% | 59.62% |
净利率 | 55.66% | 53.42% | 69.32% |
ROA | 11.5% | 8.07% | 5.25% |
ROE | 15.5% | 8.59% | 6.68% |
资产负债率 | 29.36% | 25.47% | 17.06% |
资料来源: Wind(截至 2018-11-29 xx),xxxx(xx)研究部整理
资料来源: Wind,国信证券(香港)研究部
相关报告:
《民生教育(1569 HK)2018 年中报点评外延式扩张明显提速,估值有望上台阶》
《民生教育集团(1569 HK)调研纪要》
xxx
SFC CE No.: BBR309
x000 0000 0000
支付并购滇池学院及山东远东职业技术学院交易对价后,仍有逾 10 亿现金,8 月 28 日公司公告与工商银行重庆分行签订全面战略合作协议,在未来三年内工商银行重庆分行将以银行基准利率向本公司提供累计不低于人民币 100 亿元的意向性融资,用于支持本公司发展教育及教育相关业务等多样化的需求,集团并购资金充裕。
盈利预测
考虑到集团新的并购,及 8 月底并购的云南大学滇池学院将将在 2018 财年贡献 3 个月的托
管利润及 1 个月的并表数据,但安徽文达工程信息学院的并表进度可能不及预期,我们将集团的盈利预测做出相应调整。将 2019CY 营收及净利润预测较原先分别上调 3.5%及 2.8%,考虑到人民币兑港币汇率贬值因素,维持原先目标价 2.64HKD 不变。
表 1 盈利预测 | ||||||||
2015A | 2016A | 2017A | 2018E | 2019E | 2020E | |||
ccy | u | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | |
Revenues | CNY | thd | 426317 | 444997 | 477780 | 632506 | 1047430 | 1414030 |
COGS | CNY | thd | -164653 | -186391 | -199092 | -255416 | -439921 | -565612 |
SG&A | CNY | thd | -70673 | -101739 | -158706 | -129568 | -209486 | -282806 |
Other operating income (expense) | CNY | thd | 4965 | 3737 | 10494 | 3000 | 3000 | 3000 |
Subtotal | CNY | thd | 195956 | 160604 | 130476 | 250522 | 401023 | 568612 |
EBIT | CNY | thd | 195956 | 160604 | 130476 | 250522 | 401023 | 568612 |
Equity earnings (losses) | CNY | thd | -928 | -667 | -269 | -78 | -78 | -78 |
Interest & investment income | CNY | thd | 3340 | 1500 | 7789 | 10222 | 6581.84 | 6000 |
Interest expense | CNY | thd | -305 | -2595 | -3043 | -4712 | -850 | -1350 |
Other non-operating income (expense) | CNY | thd | 39989 | 52829 | 25053 | 12472 | 3000 | 3000 |
Earnings before extra-ordinary items | CNY | thd | 238052 | 211671 | 160006 | 268426 | 474193 | 632375 |
NON-recurring profit and loss items | 8627 | 39687 | 102956 | 100000 | 100000 | 100000 | ||
Earnings before taxes | CNY | thd | 246679 | 251358 | 262962 | 368426 | 509677 | 676184 |
Income taxes | CNY | thd | -33222 | -1609 | -2115 | -11104 | -25484 | -33809 |
Minority interest | CNY | thd | -10250 | -6318 | -900 | -6156 | -10000 | -10000 |
Net profit from discontinued operation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Net income (loss) | CNY | thd | 203207 | 243431 | 259947 | 369622 | 474193 | 632375 |
EPS - Split Adjusted | CNY | units | 0.067 | 0.080 | 0.069 | 0.092 | 0.118 | 0.157 |
Shares outstanding - Weighted Average - Split Adjusted | thd | 3042795.4 | 3042795.4 | 3791640.1 | 4023954.1 | 4023954.1 | 4023954.1 |
数据来源:公司公告,国信证券(香港)研究部
风险提示
民促法实施条例未落地,收购项目举办者变更尚有不确定性
Information Disclosures
Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions
Stock Ratings:
Buy: A return potential of 10 % or more relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Neutral: A return potential ranging from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 – 12 months.
Sell: A negative return of 10% or more relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Sector Ratings:
Overweight: The sector will outperform the overall market by 10% or higher within 6 –12 months.
Neutral: The sector performance will range from -10% to 10% relative to overall market within 6 –12 months.
Underweight: The sector will underperform the overall market by 10% or lower within 6 – 12 months.
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信息披露
公司评级、行业评级及相关定义
公司评级
买入:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,个股相对大盘涨幅在 10%以上;
中性:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,个股相对大盘涨幅介于-10%与 10%之间;减持:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,个股相对大盘跌幅大于 10%。
行业评级
超配:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 10%以上;
中性:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,行业整体回报介于市场整体水平-10%与 10%之间;低配:我们预计未来 6-12 个月内,行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 10%以上。
利益披露声明
报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士,分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员,也未持有其任何财务权益。
本报告中,国信证券(xx)xxxxxxxxxxxxxx(xxxxxx(xx))并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益(包括持股),在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系,亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动。本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员。
免责条款
证券价格有时可能非常波动。证券价格可升可跌,甚至变成毫无价值。买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润,反而可能会招致损失。
本研究报告内容既不代表国信证券(香港)的推荐意见,也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约。国信证券(香港)或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务(例如配售代理、牵头经办人、保荐人、包销商或 从事自营投资于该股票)。国信证券(香港)不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团。
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