Common use of Estimates of Future Oil & Gas Related Impacts Clause in Contracts

Estimates of Future Oil & Gas Related Impacts. Oil and gas development has the potential to result in take in the form of direct mortality, harm or harassment of LEPC resulting from activities such as seismic and land surveying, construction, drilling, completion, routine operations, maintenance, and workovers. Seasonal use restrictions within the plan are designed to minimize the take related to those actions and any other Covered Activities during key breeding, nesting and brooding periods. Those seasonal use restrictions are focused within 1.25 miles of known leks that have been recorded as active at least once within the previous five years. A perfect census of all leks across the plan area is not possible due to survey effort limitations and the fact that, by their nature, leks are not permanent fixtures on the landscape. The requirement to avoid leks recorded as active at least once in the previous five years is an attempt to minimize take on leks. Levels of take are related to the frequency and scale of these activities. A variety of impacts have been identified that may directly affect LEPC populations through habitat loss or as a result of habitat avoidance by LEPC related to development. Oil and gas remediation and restoration is also included in this CCAA as a Covered Activity. These activities as defined in Section IX(E) are not expected to result in take of LEPC because they occur within existing impact buffers where the habitat has been impacted from prior development; however, in the remote chance that take would occur, take authorization will be provided. In addition, the Conservation Measures such as the seasonal timing restrictions around leks still apply to these activities such that any harassment of breeding lekking or brooding will be minimized. Oil and gas development also has the potential to result in take in the form of direct habitat loss from construction of well pads, roads, reserve pits and other infrastructure and avoidance of xxxxx and other vertical structures. Additionally, oil and gas development has the potential to result in take in the form of direct mortality, harm or harassment resulting from activities such as seismic and land surveying, drilling, completion, production, operations, maintenance, and workovers. Well permitting data from each state was utilized to define the number of active xxxxx within the EOR+10 as a starting point for forecasting future development. Xxxxx are the most common type of oil and gas impact on the landscape and are the basis for the calculations below. Oil and gas development does include other types of infrastructure. Some of which have very small impact buffers, such as privately maintained roads and distribution lines that are often covered by the larger well impact buffers. In the case of downstream infrastructure, such as pipelines and compressors, any buried infrastructure does not constitute a source of habitat loss for LEPCs. However, there is sufficient scientific data suggesting that compressor stations result in nesting habitat loss through avoidance. Smaller compressors that may be muffled to 75dB are given the same impact buffer as a well, but large compressors that are louder and much less common on the landscape have a correspondingly larger impact buffer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration produced the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), which includes long-term projections of energy supply, demand and prices out to 2040. These projections include forecast of both US natural gas production (AEO2013:78) and the production of petroleum and other liquids (AEO2013:81). These projections are based on both high and low price scenarios for each resource. The highest price scenario was used to reflect a maximum projected development scenario. The estimated annual growth rates for oil production and gas production were calculated by first summing the year 2040 estimates for oil production and gas production. This sum was then divided by the sum of the current estimates to determine the overall combined growth rate for oil and gas production for the 30-year period. The overall combined growth rate was then divided by 30 to determine the average annual combined growth rate for oil and gas production. This result was then divided by two to determine the average annual growth rates for oil production and gas production independently. The annual growth rate for the high oil and high gas price scenario is 0.0549. Production growth rate was assumed to result in a corresponding increase in xxxxx drilled. The number of xxxxx were forecasted for 10, 20 and 30 year durations across the EOR+10 as: projected xxxxx = existing xxxxx + (existing xxxxx X annual growth rate X years). Because of the lack of data to forecast where future development will occur within the region, well numbers were forecasted across the entire EOR+10 and not individual ecoregions or CHAT categories.

Estimates of Future Oil & Gas Related Impacts. Oil and gas development has the potential to result in take in the form of direct mortality, harm or harassment of LEPC resulting from activities such as seismic and land surveying, construction, drilling, completion, routine operations, maintenance, and workovers. Seasonal use restrictions within the plan are designed to minimize the take related to those actions and any other Covered Activities during key breeding, nesting and brooding periods. Those seasonal use restrictions are focused within 1.25 miles of known leks that have been recorded as active at least once within the previous five years. A perfect census of all leks across the plan area is not possible due to survey effort limitations and the fact that, by their nature, leks are not permanent fixtures on the landscape. The requirement to avoid leks recorded as active at least once in the previous five years is an attempt to minimize take on leks. Levels of take are related to the frequency and scale of these activities. A variety of impacts have been identified that may directly affect LEPC populations through habitat loss or as a result of habitat avoidance by LEPC related to development. Oil and gas remediation and restoration is also included in this CCAA as a Covered Activity. These activities as defined in Section IX(E) are not expected to result in take of LEPC because they occur within existing impact buffers Impact Buffers where the habitat has been impacted from prior development; however, in the remote chance that take would occur, take authorization will be provided. In addition, the Conservation Measures such as the seasonal timing restrictions around leks still apply to these activities such that any harassment of breeding lekking or brooding will be minimized. Oil and gas development also has the potential to result in take in the form of direct habitat loss from construction of well pads, roads, reserve pits and other infrastructure and avoidance of xxxxx and other vertical structures. Additionally, oil and gas development has the potential to result in take in the form of direct mortality, harm or harassment resulting from activities such as seismic and land surveying, drilling, completion, production, operations, maintenance, and workovers. Well permitting data from each state was utilized to define the number of active xxxxx within the EOR+10 as a starting point for forecasting future development. Xxxxx are the most common type of oil and gas impact on the landscape and are the basis for the calculations below. Oil and gas development does include other types of infrastructure. Some of which have the infrastructure included with oil and gas development has very small impact buffersImpact Buffers, such as privately maintained roads and distribution lines that are often covered by the larger well impact buffersImpact Buffers. In the case of downstream infrastructure, such as pipelines and compressors, any buried infrastructure does not constitute a source of habitat loss for LEPCs. However, there is sufficient scientific data suggesting that compressor stations result in nesting habitat loss through avoidance. Smaller compressors that may be muffled to 75dB are given the same impact buffer Impact Buffer as a well, but large compressors that are louder and much less common on the landscape have a correspondingly larger impact bufferImpact Buffer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration produced the Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), which includes long-term projections of energy supply, demand and prices out to 2040. These projections include forecast of both US natural gas production (AEO2013:78) and the production of petroleum and other liquids (AEO2013:81). These projections are based on both high and low price scenarios for each resource. The highest price scenario was used to reflect a maximum projected development scenario. The estimated annual growth rates for oil production and gas production were calculated by first summing the year 2040 estimates for oil production and gas production. This sum was then divided by the sum of the current estimates to determine the overall combined growth rate for oil and gas production for the 30-year period. The overall combined growth rate was then divided by 30 to determine the average annual combined growth rate for oil and gas production. This result was then divided by two to determine the average annual growth rates for oil production and gas production independently. The annual growth rate for the high oil and high gas price scenario is 0.0549. Production growth rate was assumed to result in a corresponding increase in xxxxx drilled. The number of xxxxx were forecasted for 10, 20 and 30 year durations across the EOR+10 as: projected xxxxx = existing xxxxx + (existing xxxxx X annual growth rate X years). Because of the lack of data to forecast where future development will occur within the region, well numbers were forecasted across the entire EOR+10 and not individual ecoregions or CHAT categories.