Opinion Polling. The first scientific opinion polling was conducted by Gallup in 1936 [33]. Since then, there has been a considerable rise in the level of sophistication in which pollsters approach the task [33]. Though individual opinion polls are covered endlessly by the news media, aggregate polling models are a more accurate approach. During the 2016 presidential election, these models included ones produced by FiveThirtyEight and RealClear Politics.2 2FiveThirtyEight’s Polls-Only Model: xxxxx://xxxxxxxx.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.xxx/ 2016-election-forecast/; RealClear Politics: xxxxx://xxx.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.xxx/ epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html Polling models use polls produced by third-party organizations like Pew and Ipsos to predict the election with a higher degree of accuracy than any single poll alone. 3 This is because polling errors, which result in a skewed representation of the electorate, are common. For this reason, virtually all models based upon opinion polls weigh the results of any new poll based upon the historical record and practices of the organization (e.g. house effect) which sponsored the survey.4 This approach can be applied to virtually anything that centers around opinion polling. For example, FiveThirtyEight has modeled President Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings.5 Modeling opinion polls can accurately represent the current political situation facing the two candidates [39, 56]. However, this is only the case in the weeks leading up to the election [19]; the father out from the election, the less representative polls are. This is particularly true when attempting to assess the impact of events on the standing of the candidates. Wlezien and Xxxxxxx (2002) found that polling is far more volatile before the conventions than after the conventions. Moreover, polling is dependent on finding willing 3Pew Research Center: xxxx://xxx.xxxxxxxxxxx.xxx/; Ipsos Game Changers Polls: xxxxx://xxx.xxxxx.xxx/en-us/news-and-polls/overview 4A popular polling model during the 2012, 2014, and 2016 campaigns was produced by FiveThirtyEight; the organization publishes its pollster rankings online: https:// xxxxxxxx.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.xxx/xxxxxxxx-xxxxxxx/ 5See this site for FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval rating forecast: https:// xxxxxxxx.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx.xxx/xxxxx-approval-ratings respondents to answer the phone when pollsters call. In the modern era, less than 1% of those called actually pick up.
