Scenarios for the Atlantic and Pacific agreements Sample Clauses

Scenarios for the Atlantic and Pacific agreements. This section reviews the potential outcomes of the Atlantic and Pacific agreements, and provides simulated scenarios. In the case of both agreements, we implement full tariff lib- eralization using the same scheme as in the BAU scenario: HS-6 lines are split depending on their initial tariffs, with differentiated reduction speeds: instant liberalization for half of the lines (the less protected ones), liberalization in three years for a quarter of the remaining lines, and liberalization after five years for the 25% most sensitive lines.20 The Atlantic agreement On the tariff side, we implement full liberalization between 2015 and 2020. The potential outcome in terms of NTMs is less easy to predict. The literature relies on a single evaluation proposed by Ecorys (2009) – 25% reduction in the trade-restrictiveness of NTMs which is not a measure of the potential outcome of negotiations but rather half the reduction that European and American entrepreneurs and regulators think is achievable assuming the political will for its achievement.21 Although this is not completely satisfactory, it is the only information available. Therefore, we assume a 25% cut in the trade restrictiveness of NTMs in our main TTIP scenario. However, we consider that given current opposition to the agreement among civil society, and given the fact that the European Commission has already excluded some topics from the negotiation (e.g. cultural 20In MAcMap-HS6, the applied tariff AVE for a product under a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) is the relevant marginal rate of the TRQ (depending on the quota fill rate). In our scenarios, AVEs for products with TRQs are set to zero, following the scheme for other products. This assumption may have a non-negligible impact on the European beef sector where TRQs are important.‌ 21Ecorys (2009) defines the “Actionability” of an NTM as “the degree to which an NTM of regulatory divergence can potentially be reduced (through various methods) by 2018, given that the political will ex- ists to address the divergence identified” and mixes business surveys, literature review, sector experts and consultations with EU and US regulators to determine it. and audiovisual services), the political will may not be sufficient to achieve a 25% cut. We test the sensitivity of our results to a 0% cut, and a 10% cut in NTM trade-restrictiveness. The Pacific agreement The Pacific agreement is more likely to include a reduction only in tariffs which we implement as full liberali...