Climate Context. Traditionally Jamaica’s bimodal rainfall pattern consist of two peak periods with higher values of rainfall and corresponding periods of low rainfall amounts. St. Xxxxxxxxx is no different with long term (1951-1980) mean rainfalls peaking in May (171mm) and October (238mm). February is the driest month with only 50mm of rain falling. Recent drought data shows that from December 2008 to January 2009 Glengoffe experienced severe drought conditions. During this period of drought, The Glengoffe Community experiences an increase in the number of hot days and a decrease in the number of cool nights. This results in heat stress on crops, an increased need for irrigation and increased outbreaks of diseases and pests. The Country Programme Strategy for the Community Based Adaptation (CBA) project in its vulnerability assessment for Jamaica alluded to predictions for mean annual reduction in rainfall as indicated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Further the CCPS mentioned that there could be reduction in the June to August rainfall period. These Climate change predictions for Jamaica and areas like Glengoffe are likely to produce more severe incidents of drought. Reduced rainfall predictions for the June to August period may affect crops growing in this period. Inter- annual and intra seasonal rainfall variability is projected to increase, possibly increasing the frequency and magnitude of droughts and floods. In general, atmospheric warming will lead precipitation events to be of higher intensity but less frequency. This is likely to be less agriculturally useful and more erosive. The IPCC also predicts an increase in the intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms, which manifest in bigger more destructive landslides and catastrophic erosion. This pose the most immediate risk to Glengoffe coupled with the lower standard of living accompanying the failing agricultural industry. The resilience of the farmer and residents in the Glengoffe Community to understand and threats posed by the climate change is paramount to our very existence.
Climate Context. Describe the climate of the region in which the target community is located. While this does not need to be overly scientific, it should include the following elements: • A brief description of the seasonality of the climate, giving approximate times of year for warm/cool or rainy/dry seasons • A brief description of when during the year particular climate risks are most acute (i.e.: September for hurricanes, July for drought, February for floods, etc). • A description of baseline climate risks (risks that do not stem from climate change). This should include cyclical climate hazards (events that recur every few years) such as flood and drought related to ENSO or other phenomena, as well as other climate risks that are not associated with climate change. • A description of climate change projections for the region, and recent manifestations of that change if applicable. This should be based on scientific assessments of climate change risks where possible. This could be based on the CBA Country Programme Strategy – consult with the CBA national coordinator. It could also be based on other documents such as the national communication to the UNFCCC, or the NAPA (where applicable)
Climate Context. The Cockpit Country is Jamaica’s last remaining wilderness area with 50,000 acres of forest reserve, and large tracks of crown lands and private land holdings. The area experiences on average 250-380cm of rainfall annually (Windsor Research Centre), which recharges and supplies the main river systems and average temperature between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius. Based on historical averages, the heavy rainfall season of April - May and September - October account for 47% of the total annual rainfall. During this period water levels flowing through the community river systems are in spate. In Bunkers Hill community the higher water levels result in flooding causing damage to crops like coconuts, yams, dasheen, corn and sweet potato. Frequent flooding has caused the erosion of the river embankment, damaging the existing abutment and threatens the stability of the bridge and fording. The rising water from the overflowing river during April – May and September – October restricts access by the communities 40 farmers who gain access to their far holdings by travelling across the bridge and fording to tend their crops and harvest their crops. The extended period taken for the river to recede adds to the extent of loss experienced by farmers. . Climate change projections for the Caribbean and areas like the Cockpit Country include increased rainfall of higher intensity, which will likely contribute to more severe incidents of flooding in Bunkers Hill, which in turn will cause erosion, threaten lives and damage croplands. Existing patterns of vulnerability to flash flooding are already a significant threat to the community. Any exacerbation of these flash flooding risks would threaten the viability of agriculture in the region by eroding croplands, destroying crop production in close proximity to fresh water systems, severely erode the abutment to the bridge, and cause contamination due to the larger uptake of agricultural chemicals and pollutants by higher flow levels.
