Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐4.6% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 36 and tab. 48); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to increase (+7.6%) for all the planting dates (fig. 36 and tab. 48); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) seems to be slightly important the crop water balance, due to their very low values in absolute terms (tab.49); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the spring‐summer season (fig. 36 and tab. 48); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 36 and tab.50‐51); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, especially under full irrigated to mild stress conditions (fig. 36 and tab.50‐51); Tab. 48 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat in Merguellil catchment (Tunisia) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 521.8 477.5 ‐8.5% 551.8 5.8% november 607.5 566.3 ‐6.8% 647.0 6.5% december 666.5 639.1 ‐4.1% 717.4 7.6% january 685.5 663.3 ‐3.2% 742.8 8.4% february 727.5 716.7 ‐1.5% 794.0 9.1% average 641.8 612.6 ‐4.6% 690.6 7.6% Tab. 49 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat in Merguellil catchment (Tunisia) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 139.9 131.9 ‐5.7% 136.1 ‐2.7% november 137.7 117.1 ‐14.9% 119.2 ‐13.4% december 117.8 101.1 ‐14.2% 101.1 ‐14.2% january 90.3 75.8 ‐16.1% 75.8 ‐16.1% february 81.6 64.4 ‐21.1% 66.6 ‐18.4%
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Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐4.6‐6.5% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 36 9 and tab. 48tab.15); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to remain stable or to increase (+7.6+5%) for all the planting dates (fig. 36 9 and tab. 48tab.15); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) seems to be slightly important relevant for the crop water balance, due to their very low values in absolute terms (tab.49tab.16); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the spring‐summer season (fig. 36 9 and tab. 48tab.15); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 36 9 and tab.50‐51tab.17‐18); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, especially under full irrigated to mild stress conditions (fig. 36 fig.9 and tab.50‐51tab.17‐18); Tab. 48 Tab.15 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 521.8 477.5 476.7 436.2 ‐8.5% 551.8 5.8494.5 3.7% november 607.5 566.3 ‐6.8547.4 497.1 ‐9.2% 647.0 6.5562.9 2.8% december 666.5 639.1 ‐4.1609.8 567.3 ‐7.0% 717.4 7.6636.6 4.4% january 685.5 663.3 ‐3.2624.9 590.8 ‐5.5% 742.8 8.4660.2 5.6% february 727.5 716.7 ‐1.5667.6 644.6 ‐3.4% 794.0 9.1719.9 7.8% average 641.8 612.6 ‐4.6585.3 547.2 ‐6.5% 690.6 7.6614.8 5.0% Tab. 49 Tab.16 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 139.9 131.9 ‐5.783.0 78.6 ‐5.3% 136.1 ‐2.783.9 1.1% november 137.7 117.1 ‐14.987.0 80.8 ‐7.1% 119.2 ‐13.482.8 ‐4.9% december 117.8 101.1 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4% 66.8 ‐2.4% january 41.0 42.5 3.7% 42.5 3.7% february 32.3 36.6 13.3% 36.6 13.3% average 62.3 61.0 ‐2.1% 62.5 0.3% Tab.17– Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the effective crop evapotranspiration of wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate. Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 585.2 547.1 ‐6.5% 614.7 5.1% mild1 559.9 512.9 ‐8.4% 588.8 5.2% mild2 522.0 490.2 ‐6.1% 544.1 4.2% medium 483.4 414.8 ‐14.2% 101.1 ‐14.2503.3 4.1% severe1 432.2 398.9 ‐7.7% 450.1 4.1% severe2 332.8 295.5 ‐11.2% 341.6 2.7% rainfed 179.1 173.6 ‐3.1% 176.5 ‐1.5% Tab. 18– Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 486.3 454.7 ‐6.5% 516.3 6.2% mild1 435.3 407.7 ‐6.3% 470.1 8.0% mild2 389.1 363.7 ‐6.5% 413.1 6.2% medium 339.9 288.4 ‐15.1% 375.6 10.5% severe1 282.9 265.0 ‐6.3% 305.6 8.0% severe2 169.9 144.2 ‐15.1% 187.8 10.5% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐8.6% and ‐7.7%, on average) while, by considering a late maturing variety, an increase of both (respectively of about +4.4% and +8%, on average) (fig. 8); 800,0 700,0 y = 1,044x R² = 0,995 600,0 500,0 400,0 y = 0,916x R² = 0,984 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 100,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 Effective ETc‐ 2000 (mm/season) Effective ETc ‐ 2050 (mm/season) ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always (also under different planting dates) their shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig. 10). 800,0 700,0 y = 1,080x 600,0 R² = 0,991 500,0 400,0 y = 0,923x R² = 0,987 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 Net Irrigation ‐ 2000 (mm/season) Net Irrigation ‐ 2050 (mm/season) Fig. 8 – Scatter‐plot of seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements of as affected by different variety selection for wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. 800,0 ETc_max 2000 700,0 ETc_max 2050 600,0 ETc_max 2050 late_var 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 october november december january 90.3 75.8 ‐16.1% 75.8 ‐16.1% february 81.6 64.4 ‐21.1% 66.6 ‐18.4%average planting date 800,0 ETc_eff 2000 700,0 ETc_eff 2050 600,0 ETc_eff 2050 late_var 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 full mild1 mild2 medium severe1 severe2 rainfed irrigation strategy 800,0 NIR 2000 700,0 NIR 2050 600,0 NIR 2050 late_var 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 full mild1 mild2 medium severe1 severe2 rainfed irrigation strategy Maximum seasonal evapotranspiration (mm/season) Net irrigation requirements (mm/season) Effective seasonal evapotranspiration (mm/season) Fig. 9 – Effect of planting date, irrigation strategies and variety selection on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements of wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 February2050 February2000 0 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 DAS 600 500 400 300 200 100 November2050 November2000 0 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 DAS Cumulative maximum crop evapotranspiration (mm) Cumulative maximum crop evapotranspiration (mm) Fig. 10 – Cumulative curves of maximum crop evapotranspiration as affected by different planting date for wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions.
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Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce increase for the current variety all crop models under “future” (2050) scenario scenario, because of the fixed duration of cycle length and probably as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycleincrease in daily ETo, on average of about ‐4.6+5.0% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 36 28 and tab. 4838); ‐ on if “extreme weather” conditions (2050+1) are considered, the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, projected maximum evapotranspiration variation is projected to increase slightly higher (+7.6on average of about +5.9%) for all ), but with some differences between the planting dates models (fig. 36 28 and tab. 4838); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation increase and/or decrease of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) during the period March‐November), seems to be slightly important for the crop water balance, due to their because of the very low values with respect to crop water needs (tab. 39), with the exception of rainfed conditions (in absolute terms (tab.49which rain is the only source of water); ‐ the higher values of maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is are observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) onesthe “new” cropping type, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the spring‐summer season under all climate scenarios (fig. 36 28 and tab. 4838); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration ETc_eff and net irrigation requirements NIR are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions conditions, under all climate scenarios (fig. 36 28 and tab.50‐51tab. 40‐41); ‐ ETc_eff is projected to increase under both 2050 (on average +5.4%) and 2050+1 (+5%) scenarios, for all irrigation strategies with the exception of rainfed conditions (in which an opposite behaviour is projected because of the strong reduction of the rainfall patterns under “extreme weather”); ‐ as for ETc_maxa consequence, also the ETc_eff and NIR are is projected to decrease in increase for all irrigation strategies under both 2050 if the current variety is used, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, especially under full irrigated to mild stress conditions (figon average +7.8%) and 2050+1 (+12.3%) scenarios. 36 and tab.50‐51); Tab. 48 38 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum Maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat as estimated by different Kc models for olive in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present”, “future” and “futureextreme weather” climate conditions. Planting date Crop model ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var +1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 521.8 477.5 ‐8.5Old_Orgaz_270 842.0 880.5 4.6% 551.8 5.8878.5 4.3% november 607.5 566.3 ‐6.8New_Orgaz_270 1000.6 1048.0 4.7% 647.0 6.51050.1 4.9% december 666.5 639.1 ‐4.1FAO66_270 941.2 994.4 5.7% 717.4 7.6% january 685.5 663.3 ‐3.2% 742.8 8.4% february 727.5 716.7 ‐1.5% 794.0 9.11019.3 8.3% average 641.8 612.6 ‐4.6927.9 974.3 5.0% 690.6 7.6982.6 5.9% Tab. 49 39 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective Effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat olive in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present”, “future” and “futureextreme weather” climate conditions. Planting date Crop model Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var +1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 139.9 131.9 ‐5.7Old_Orgaz_270 57.6 63.5 10.3% 136.1 ‐2.731.5 ‐45.2% november 137.7 117.1 ‐14.9New_Orgaz_270 57.6 63.5 10.3% 119.2 ‐13.431.5 ‐45.2% december 117.8 101.1 FAO66_270 57.6 63.5 10.3% 31.5 ‐45.2% average 57.6 63.5 10.3% 31.5 ‐45.2% Tab. 40 – Effect of irrigation strategies on the effective crop evapotranspiration of olive in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, “future” and “extreme weather” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050+1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 927.9 974.3 5.0% 982.6 5.9% mild1 889.8 934.6 5.0% 939.0 5.5% mild2 796.9 832.6 4.5% 835.7 4.9% medium 726.7 775.0 6.6% 776.8 6.9% severe1 642.8 676.3 5.2% 667.7 3.9% severe2 448.9 476.2 6.1% 463.3 3.2% rainfed 169.9 174.3 2.6% 145.9 ‐14.2% 101.1 ‐14.2Tab. 41 – Effect of irrigation strategies on the net irrigation requirements of olive in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, “future” and “extreme weather” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 +1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 829.4 884.2 6.6% january 90.3 75.8 ‐16.1901.7 8.7% 75.8 ‐16.1mild1 743.2 802.6 8.0% february 81.6 64.4 ‐21.1835.6 12.4% 66.6 ‐18.4%mild2 663.5 707.3 6.6% 721.4 8.7% medium 565.1 614.9 8.8% 654.8 15.9% severe1 483.1 521.7 8.0% 543.2 12.4% severe2 282.5 307.5 8.8% 327.4 15.9% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 1200,0 ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 +1 1000,0 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 0,0 Old_Orgaz_270 New_Orgaz_270 FAO66_270 average crop model 1200,0 1000,0 ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050+1 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 0,0 full mild1 mild2 medium severe1 severe2 rainfed irrigation strategy 1000,0 900,0 800,0 700,0 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 +1 full mild1 mild2 medium severe1 severe2 rainfed irrigation strategy Effective seasonal evapotranspiration (mm/season) Maximum seasonal evapotranspiration (mm/season) Net irrigation requirements (mm/season) Fig. 28 – Effect of Kc model and irrigation strategies on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements of olive in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, “future” and “extreme weather” climate conditions.
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Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐4.6‐3.6% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 36 45 and tab. 48tab.58); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to increase (+7.6on average of about +3.2%) for all the planting dates (fig. 36 45 and tab. 48tab.58); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation decrease of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) seems to be slightly important less relevant for the crop water balance, due to because of their very low values in absolute terms (tab.49tab.59); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase decrease slightly (in absolute terms) for late (FebruaryApril) planting date with respect to earlier (OctoberFebruary) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the spring‐summer season higher summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length (fig. 36 45 and tab. 48tab.58); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 36 45 and tab.50‐51tab.60‐61); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, especially under full irrigated NIR and ETc_eff are always projected to mild stress conditions increase (fig. 36 45 and tab.50‐51tab.60‐61); . Tab. 48 58 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat tomato in Merguellil catchment (Tunisia) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 521.8 477.5 ‐8.5February 1st 814.1 785.0 ‐3.6% 551.8 5.8841.4 3.3% november 607.5 566.3 ‐6.8February 15th 791.7 761.6 ‐3.8% 647.0 6.5812.2 2.6% december 666.5 639.1 ‐4.1March 1st 769.5 741.5 ‐3.6% 717.4 7.6793.4 3.1% january 685.5 663.3 ‐3.2March 15th 737.9 715.9 ‐3.0% 742.8 8.4766.0 3.8% february 727.5 716.7 ‐1.5April 1st 707.8 680.8 ‐3.8% 794.0 9.1732.1 3.4% average 641.8 612.6 ‐4.6764.2 737.0 ‐3.6% 690.6 7.6789.0 3.2% Tab. 49 59 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat tomato in Merguellil catchment (Tunisia) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 139.9 131.9 ‐5.7% 136.1 ‐2.7% november 137.7 117.1 ‐14.9% 119.2 ‐13.4% december 117.8 101.1 ‐14.2% 101.1 ‐14.2% january 90.3 75.8 ‐16.1% 75.8 ‐16.1% february February 1st 81.6 64.4 ‐21.1% 66.6 ‐18.4% 68.8 ‐15.6% February 15th 70.5 55.2 ‐21.7% 57.4 ‐18.5% March 1st 58.8 50.4 ‐14.4% 52.6 ‐10.6% March 15th 47.2 31.1 ‐34.1% 33.3 ‐29.3% April 1st 34.0 20.8 ‐38.9% 20.8 ‐38.9%
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Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐4.6‐6.8% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 36 fig.18 and tab. 4825); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to increase slightly (+7.6on average of about +1.3%) for all the planting dates (fig. 36 18 and tab. 4825); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) seems to be slightly important irrelevant for the crop water balance, due to because of their very low values in absolute terms (tab.49tab.26); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase decrease slightly (in absolute terms) for late (FebruaryApril) planting date with respect to earlier (OctoberFebruary) ones, because of the shifting effect of most of higher summer temperatures in reducing the crop growing cycle towards the spring‐summer season (fig. 36 18 and tab. 4825); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 36 18 and tab.50‐51tab.27‐28); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, especially under full irrigated NIR and ETc_eff variations seems to mild stress conditions be very slight, depending somehow on the irrigation strategy considered (fig. 36 18 and tab.50‐51tab.27‐28); Tab. 48 Tab.25 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat tomato in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 521.8 477.5 ‐8.5February 1st 710.9 654.7 ‐7.9% 551.8 5.8706.2 ‐0.7% november 607.5 566.3 February 15th 682.0 637.1 ‐6.6% 688.9 1.0% March 1st 663.2 619.0 ‐6.7% 672.7 1.4% March 15th 640.8 599.7 ‐6.4% 654.3 2.1% April 1st 622.3 584.0 ‐6.1% 640.7 3.0% average 663.8 618.9 ‐6.8% 647.0 6.5% december 666.5 639.1 ‐4.1% 717.4 7.6% january 685.5 663.3 ‐3.2% 742.8 8.4% february 727.5 716.7 ‐1.5% 794.0 9.1% average 641.8 612.6 ‐4.6% 690.6 7.6672.6 1.3% Tab. 49 26 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat tomato in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 139.9 131.9 ‐5.7February 1st 32.3 36.6 13.3% 136.1 ‐2.736.6 13.3% november 137.7 117.1 ‐14.9February 15th 25.4 25.8 1.8% 119.2 ‐13.425.8 1.8% december 117.8 101.1 ‐14.2March 1st 20.9 23.1 10.8% 101.1 ‐14.223.1 10.8% january 90.3 75.8 ‐16.1March 15th 17.7 19.2 7.9% 75.8 ‐16.119.2 7.9% february 81.6 64.4 ‐21.1April 1st 9.2 9.9 7.5% 66.6 ‐18.49.9 7.5% average 21.1 22.9 8.6% 22.9 8.6% Tab. 27 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the effective crop evapotranspiration of tomato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate. Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 662.6 617.8 ‐6.8% 671.3 1.3% mild1 631.3 588.9 ‐6.7% 638.2 1.1% mild2 570.1 534.0 ‐6.3% 576.8 1.2% medium 549.7 514.4 ‐6.4% 558.0 1.5% severe1 462.6 435.1 ‐5.9% 467.3 1.0% severe2 346.9 329.3 ‐5.1% 351.1 1.2% rainfed 143.3 143.3 0.0% 143.4 0.1% Tab. 28 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of tomato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 611.8 569.9 ‐6.9% 629.3 2.9% mild1 569.0 523.4 ‐8.0% 570.9 0.3% mild2 489.4 455.9 ‐6.9% 503.4 2.9% medium 465.1 425.6 ‐8.5% 483.6 4.0% severe1 369.8 340.2 ‐8.0% 371.1 0.3% severe2 232.5 212.8 ‐8.5% 241.8 4.0% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐6.4% and ‐7.6%, on average) while, by considering a late maturing variety, only a slight increase of both is predicted (respectively of about +1.1% and +2%, on average) (fig. 17); Effective ETc ‐ 2050 (mm/season) ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always (especially for earlier planting dates) a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig. 19). 800,0 700,0 y = 1,011x R² = 0,998 600,0 500,0 y = 0,936x R² = 0,998 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 Effective ETc‐ 2000 (mm/season) 800,0 700,0 y = 1,020x R² = 0,993 600,0 500,0 y = 0,924x R² = 0,997 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 Net Irrigation ‐ 2000 (mm/season) Net Irrigation ‐ 2050 (mm/season)
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Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐4.6‐10.3% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 36 24 and tab. 4831); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to increase remain almost the same (+7.6on average of about ‐0.7%) for all the planting dates (fig. 36 24 and tab. 4831); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) seems to be slightly important for the crop water balance, due to their very low values in absolute terms with an average reduction of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle (tab.49tab. 32); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the higher spring‐summer season temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length (fig. 36 24 and tab. 48tab.31); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 36 24 and tab.50‐51tab.33‐34); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, especially under full irrigated NIR and ETc_eff are always projected to mild stress conditions remain relatively stable or slightly reduce (fig. 36 24 and tab.50‐51tab. 33‐34); Tab. 48 Tab.31 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat potato in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 521.8 477.5 ‐8.5591.7 492.1 ‐16.8% 551.8 5.8557.9 ‐5.7% november 607.5 566.3 ‐6.8668.2 584.5 ‐12.5% 647.0 6.5649.6 ‐2.8% december 666.5 639.1 ‐4.1694.8 626.7 ‐9.8% 717.4 7.6688.1 ‐1.0% january 685.5 663.3 ‐3.2661.8 613.3 ‐7.3% 742.8 8.4676.7 2.3% february 727.5 716.7 ‐1.5665.5 627.1 ‐5.8% 794.0 9.1686.6 3.2% average 641.8 612.6 ‐4.6656.4 588.7 ‐10.3% 690.6 7.6651.8 ‐0.7% Tab. 49 Tab.32– Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat potato in Merguellil catchment Jordan river basin (TunisiaJordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 139.9 131.9 ‐5.789.7 79.9 ‐10.9% 136.1 ‐2.785.2 ‐5.0% november 137.7 117.1 ‐14.987.0 81.8 ‐6.0% 119.2 ‐13.484.8 ‐2.6% december 117.8 101.1 ‐14.268.4 66.8 ‐2.4% 101.1 ‐14.266.8 ‐2.4% january 90.3 75.8 ‐16.141.0 42.5 3.7% 75.8 ‐16.142.5 3.7% february 81.6 64.4 ‐21.132.3 36.6 13.3% 66.6 ‐18.436.6 13.3% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.4% 63.2 ‐0.8% Tab. 33 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the effective crop evapotranspiration of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate. Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3% 650.1 ‐0.7% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0% 608.2 ‐0.8% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8% 553.1 ‐0.8% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1% 532.5 ‐0.8% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3% 443.8 ‐0.9% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7% 334.7 ‐1.0% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5% 136.7 ‐2.1% Tab.34 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5% 572.5 ‐1.1% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8% 525.9 ‐0.3% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5% 458.0 ‐1.1% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1% 434.8 0.4% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8% 341.8 ‐0.3% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1% 217.4 0.4% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8% and ‐10.6%, on average) and, also by considering a late maturing variety, a relative stability or slight decrease of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8% and ‐0.4%, on average) (fig.23); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x R² = 0,992 600,0 500,0 y = 0,902x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 Effective ETc‐ 2000 (mm/season) Effective ETc ‐ 2050 (mm/season) ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 600,0 R² = 0,993 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x R² = 0,988 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 Net Irrigation ‐ 2000 (mm/season) Net Irrigation ‐ 2050 (mm/season)
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