Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐10.3% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 24 and tab. 31); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to remain almost the same (on average of about ‐0.7%) (fig. 24 and tab. 31); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns seems slightly important for the crop water balance, with an average reduction of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle (tab. 32); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the higher spring‐summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length (fig. 24 and tab.31); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 24 and tab.33‐34); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, if a late maturing variety is selected, NIR and ETc_eff are always projected to remain relatively stable or slightly reduce (fig. 24 and tab. 33‐34); Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 591.7 492.1 ‐16.8% 557.9 ‐5.7% november 668.2 584.5 ‐12.5% 649.6 ‐2.8% december 694.8 626.7 ‐9.8% 688.1 ‐1.0% january 661.8 613.3 ‐7.3% 676.7 2.3% february 665.5 627.1 ‐5.8% 686.6 3.2% average 656.4 588.7 ‐10.3% 651.8 ‐0.7% Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 89.7 79.9 ‐10.9% 85.2 ‐5.0% november 87.0 81.8 ‐6.0% 84.8 ‐2.6% december 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4% 66.8 ‐2.4% january 41.0 42.5 3.7% 42.5 3.7% february 32.3 36.6 13.3% 36.6 13.3% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.4% 63.2 ‐0.8% Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3% 650.1 ‐0.7% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0% 608.2 ‐0.8% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8% 553.1 ‐0.8% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1% 532.5 ‐0.8% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3% 443.8 ‐0.9% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7% 334.7 ‐1.0% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5% 136.7 ‐2.1% Tab.34 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5% 572.5 ‐1.1% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8% 525.9 ‐0.3% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5% 458.0 ‐1.1% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1% 434.8 0.4% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8% 341.8 ‐0.3% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1% 217.4 0.4% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8% and ‐10.6%, on average) and, also by considering a late maturing variety, a relative stability or slight decrease of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8% and ‐0.4%, on average) (fig.23); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x R² = 0,992 600,0 500,0 y = 0,902x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 600,0 R² = 0,993 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x R² = 0,988 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0
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Samples: Grant Agreement
Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce increase for the current variety all crop models under “future” (2050) scenario scenario, because of the fixed duration of cycle length and probably as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycleincrease in daily ETo, on average of about ‐10.3+5.0% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 24 28 and tab. 3138); ‐ on if “extreme weather” conditions (2050+1) are considered, the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, projected maximum evapotranspiration variation is projected to remain almost the same slightly higher (on average of about ‐0.7+5.9%) ), but with some differences between the models (fig. 24 28 and tab. 3138); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation increase and/or decrease of rainfall patterns (during the period March‐November), seems to be slightly important for the crop water balance, because of the very low values with an average reduction of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle respect to crop water needs (tab. 3239), with the exception of rainfed conditions (in which rain is the only source of water); ‐ the higher values of maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is are observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) onesthe “new” cropping type, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the higher spring‐summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length under all climate scenarios (fig. 24 28 and tab.31tab. 38); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration ETc_eff and net irrigation requirements NIR are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions conditions, under all climate scenarios (fig. 24 28 and tab.33‐34tab. 40‐41); ‐ ETc_eff is projected to increase under both 2050 (on average +5.4%) and 2050+1 (+5%) scenarios, for all irrigation strategies with the exception of rainfed conditions (in which an opposite behaviour is projected because of the strong reduction of the rainfall patterns under “extreme weather”); ‐ as for ETc_maxa consequence, also the ETc_eff and NIR are is projected to decrease increase for all irrigation strategies under both 2050 (on average +7.8%) and 2050+1 (+12.3%) scenarios. Tab. 38 – Maximum crop evapotranspiration as estimated by different Kc models for olive in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other sideJordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, if a late maturing variety is selected, NIR “future” and ETc_eff are always projected to remain relatively stable or slightly reduce (fig“extreme weather” climate conditions. 24 and tab. 33‐34); Planting date Crop model ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var +1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 591.7 492.1 ‐16.8Old_Orgaz_270 842.0 880.5 4.6% 557.9 ‐5.7878.5 4.3% november 668.2 584.5 ‐12.5New_Orgaz_270 1000.6 1048.0 4.7% 649.6 ‐2.81050.1 4.9% december 694.8 626.7 ‐9.8FAO66_270 941.2 994.4 5.7% 688.1 ‐1.0% january 661.8 613.3 ‐7.3% 676.7 2.3% february 665.5 627.1 ‐5.8% 686.6 3.21019.3 8.3% average 656.4 588.7 ‐10.3927.9 974.3 5.0% 651.8 ‐0.7982.6 5.9% Planting date Tab. 39 – Effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of olive in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, “future” and “extreme weather” climate conditions. Crop model Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var +1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 89.7 79.9 ‐10.9Old_Orgaz_270 57.6 63.5 10.3% 85.2 ‐5.031.5 ‐45.2% november 87.0 81.8 ‐6.0New_Orgaz_270 57.6 63.5 10.3% 84.8 ‐2.631.5 ‐45.2% december 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4FAO66_270 57.6 63.5 10.3% 66.8 ‐2.4% january 41.0 42.5 3.7% 42.5 3.7% february 32.3 36.6 13.3% 36.6 13.331.5 ‐45.2% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.457.6 63.5 10.3% 63.2 ‐0.831.5 ‐45.2% Tab. 40 – Effect of irrigation strategies on the effective crop evapotranspiration of olive in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, “future” and “extreme weather” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var 2050+1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3927.9 974.3 5.0% 650.1 ‐0.7982.6 5.9% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0889.8 934.6 5.0% 608.2 ‐0.8939.0 5.5% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8796.9 832.6 4.5% 553.1 ‐0.8835.7 4.9% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1726.7 775.0 6.6% 532.5 ‐0.8776.8 6.9% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3642.8 676.3 5.2% 443.8 ‐0.9667.7 3.9% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7448.9 476.2 6.1% 334.7 ‐1.0463.3 3.2% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5169.9 174.3 2.6% 136.7 ‐2.1145.9 ‐14.2% Tab.34 Tab. 41 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato olive in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present”, “future” and “futureextreme weather” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var +1 [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5829.4 884.2 6.6% 572.5 ‐1.1901.7 8.7% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8743.2 802.6 8.0% 525.9 ‐0.3835.6 12.4% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5663.5 707.3 6.6% 458.0 ‐1.1721.4 8.7% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1565.1 614.9 8.8% 434.8 0.4654.8 15.9% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8483.1 521.7 8.0% 341.8 ‐0.3543.2 12.4% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1282.5 307.5 8.8% 217.4 0.4327.4 15.9% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal 1200,0 ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 +1 800,0 600,0 400,0 200,0 Old_Orgaz_270 New_Orgaz_270 FAO66_270 average 1200,0 1000,0 ETc_eff and 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050+1 600,0 400,0 200,0 NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8% and ‐10.6%, on average) and, also by considering a late maturing variety, a relative stability or slight decrease of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8% and ‐0.4%, on average) (fig.23); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x R² = 0,992 600,0 500,0 y = 0,902x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs NIR 2050 200,0 2000 vs NIR 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 600,0 R² = 0,993 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x R² = 0,988 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0+1
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Samples: Grant Agreement
Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐10.3‐6.8% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 24 fig.18 and tab. 3125); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to remain almost the same increase slightly (on average of about ‐0.7+1.3%) for all the planting dates (fig. 24 18 and tab. 3125); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns seems slightly important to be irrelevant for the crop water balance, with an average reduction because of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle their very low values (tab. 32tab.26); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase decrease slightly (in absolute terms) for late (FebruaryApril) planting date with respect to earlier (OctoberFebruary) ones, because of the shifting effect of most of higher summer temperatures in reducing the crop growing cycle towards the higher spring‐summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length (fig. 24 18 and tab.31tab. 25); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 24 18 and tab.33‐34tab.27‐28); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, if a late maturing variety is selected, NIR and ETc_eff are always projected variations seems to remain relatively stable or slightly reduce be very slight, depending somehow on the irrigation strategy considered (fig. 24 18 and tab. 33‐34tab.27‐28); Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 591.7 492.1 ‐16.8February 1st 710.9 654.7 ‐7.9% 557.9 ‐5.7706.2 ‐0.7% november 668.2 584.5 ‐12.5February 15th 682.0 637.1 ‐6.6% 649.6 ‐2.8688.9 1.0% december 694.8 626.7 ‐9.8March 1st 663.2 619.0 ‐6.7% 688.1 ‐1.0672.7 1.4% january 661.8 613.3 ‐7.3March 15th 640.8 599.7 ‐6.4% 676.7 2.3654.3 2.1% february 665.5 627.1 ‐5.8April 1st 622.3 584.0 ‐6.1% 686.6 3.2640.7 3.0% average 656.4 588.7 ‐10.3663.8 618.9 ‐6.8% 651.8 ‐0.7672.6 1.3% Tab. 26 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of tomato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 89.7 79.9 ‐10.9% 85.2 ‐5.0% november 87.0 81.8 ‐6.0% 84.8 ‐2.6% december 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4% 66.8 ‐2.4% january 41.0 42.5 3.7% 42.5 3.7% february February 1st 32.3 36.6 13.3% 36.6 13.3% February 15th 25.4 25.8 1.8% 25.8 1.8% March 1st 20.9 23.1 10.8% 23.1 10.8% March 15th 17.7 19.2 7.9% 19.2 7.9% April 1st 9.2 9.9 7.5% 9.9 7.5% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.421.1 22.9 8.6% 63.2 ‐0.822.9 8.6% Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3662.6 617.8 ‐6.8% 650.1 ‐0.7671.3 1.3% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0631.3 588.9 ‐6.7% 608.2 ‐0.8638.2 1.1% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8570.1 534.0 ‐6.3% 553.1 ‐0.8576.8 1.2% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1549.7 514.4 ‐6.4% 532.5 ‐0.8558.0 1.5% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3462.6 435.1 ‐5.9% 443.8 ‐0.9467.3 1.0% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7346.9 329.3 ‐5.1% 334.7 ‐1.0351.1 1.2% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5143.3 143.3 0.0% 136.7 ‐2.1143.4 0.1% Tab.34 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5611.8 569.9 ‐6.9% 572.5 ‐1.1629.3 2.9% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8569.0 523.4 ‐8.0% 525.9 ‐0.3570.9 0.3% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5489.4 455.9 ‐6.9% 458.0 ‐1.1503.4 2.9% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1465.1 425.6 ‐8.5% 434.8 0.4483.6 4.0% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8369.8 340.2 ‐8.0% 341.8 ‐0.3371.1 0.3% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1232.5 212.8 ‐8.5% 217.4 0.4241.8 4.0% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8‐6.4% and ‐10.6‐7.6%, on average) andwhile, also by considering a late maturing variety, only a relative stability or slight decrease increase of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8+1.1% and ‐0.4+2%, on average) (fig.23fig. 17); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x R² = 0,992 600,0 500,0 y = 0,902x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always (especially for earlier planting dates) a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25fig. 19). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 1,011x R² = 0,998 600,0 500,0 y = 0,936x R² = 0,998 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 800,0 700,0 y = 1,020x R² = 0,993 600,0 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x 0,924x R² = 0,988 0,997 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0
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Samples: Grant Agreement
Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐10.3‐4.6% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 24 36 and tab. 3148); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to remain almost the same increase (on average of about ‐0.7+7.6%) for all the planting dates (fig. 24 36 and tab. 3148); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns (‐13.6%) seems to be slightly important for the crop water balance, with an average reduction of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle due to their very low values in absolute terms (tab. 32tab.49); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the higher spring‐summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length season (fig. 24 36 and tab.31tab. 48); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 24 36 and tab.33‐34tab.50‐51); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, NIR and ETc_eff are always projected especially under full irrigated to remain relatively stable or slightly reduce mild stress conditions (fig. 24 36 and tab. 33‐34tab.50‐51); Tab. 48 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat in Merguellil catchment (Tunisia) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 591.7 492.1 ‐16.8521.8 477.5 ‐8.5% 557.9 ‐5.7551.8 5.8% november 668.2 584.5 ‐12.5607.5 566.3 ‐6.8% 649.6 ‐2.8647.0 6.5% december 694.8 626.7 ‐9.8666.5 639.1 ‐4.1% 688.1 ‐1.0717.4 7.6% january 661.8 613.3 ‐7.3685.5 663.3 ‐3.2% 676.7 2.3742.8 8.4% february 665.5 627.1 ‐5.8727.5 716.7 ‐1.5% 686.6 3.2794.0 9.1% average 656.4 588.7 ‐10.3641.8 612.6 ‐4.6% 651.8 ‐0.7690.6 7.6% Tab. 49 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the effective rainfall pattern during crop cycle of wheat in Merguellil catchment (Tunisia) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 89.7 79.9 ‐10.9139.9 131.9 ‐5.7% 85.2 ‐5.0136.1 ‐2.7% november 87.0 81.8 ‐6.0137.7 117.1 ‐14.9% 84.8 ‐2.6119.2 ‐13.4% december 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4117.8 101.1 ‐14.2% 66.8 ‐2.4101.1 ‐14.2% january 41.0 42.5 3.790.3 75.8 ‐16.1% 42.5 3.775.8 ‐16.1% february 32.3 36.6 13.381.6 64.4 ‐21.1% 36.6 13.3% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.4% 63.2 ‐0.8% Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3% 650.1 ‐0.7% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0% 608.2 ‐0.8% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8% 553.1 ‐0.8% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1% 532.5 ‐0.8% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3% 443.8 ‐0.9% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7% 334.7 ‐1.0% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5% 136.7 ‐2.1% Tab.34 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5% 572.5 ‐1.1% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8% 525.9 ‐0.3% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5% 458.0 ‐1.1% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1% 434.8 0.4% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8% 341.8 ‐0.3% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1% 217.4 0.4% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8% and ‐10.666.6 ‐18.4%, on average) and, also by considering a late maturing variety, a relative stability or slight decrease of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8% and ‐0.4%, on average) (fig.23); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x R² = 0,992 600,0 500,0 y = 0,902x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 600,0 R² = 0,993 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x R² = 0,988 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0
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Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐10.3‐3.6% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 24 45 and tab. 31tab.58); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to remain almost the same increase (on average of about ‐0.7+3.2%) for all the planting dates (fig. 24 45 and tab. 31tab.58); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation decrease of rainfall patterns seems slightly important to be less relevant for the crop water balance, with an average reduction because of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle their very low values (tab. 32tab.59); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase decrease slightly (in absolute terms) for late (FebruaryApril) planting date with respect to earlier (OctoberFebruary) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the higher spring‐summer summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length (fig. 24 45 and tab.31tab.58); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 24 45 and tab.33‐34tab.60‐61); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, if a late maturing variety is selected, NIR and ETc_eff are always projected to remain relatively stable or slightly reduce increase (fig. 24 45 and tabtab.60‐61). 33‐34); Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 591.7 492.1 ‐16.8February 1st 814.1 785.0 ‐3.6% 557.9 ‐5.7841.4 3.3% november 668.2 584.5 ‐12.5February 15th 791.7 761.6 ‐3.8% 649.6 ‐2.8812.2 2.6% december 694.8 626.7 ‐9.8March 1st 769.5 741.5 ‐3.6% 688.1 ‐1.0793.4 3.1% january 661.8 613.3 ‐7.3March 15th 737.9 715.9 ‐3.0% 676.7 2.3766.0 3.8% february 665.5 627.1 ‐5.8April 1st 707.8 680.8 ‐3.8% 686.6 3.2732.1 3.4% average 656.4 588.7 ‐10.3764.2 737.0 ‐3.6% 651.8 ‐0.7789.0 3.2% Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 89.7 79.9 ‐10.9February 1st 81.6 66.6 ‐18.4% 85.2 ‐5.068.8 ‐15.6% november 87.0 81.8 ‐6.0February 15th 70.5 55.2 ‐21.7% 84.8 ‐2.657.4 ‐18.5% december 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4March 1st 58.8 50.4 ‐14.4% 66.8 ‐2.452.6 ‐10.6% january 41.0 42.5 3.7March 15th 47.2 31.1 ‐34.1% 42.5 3.733.3 ‐29.3% february 32.3 36.6 13.3April 1st 34.0 20.8 ‐38.9% 36.6 13.3% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.4% 63.2 ‐0.8% Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3% 650.1 ‐0.7% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0% 608.2 ‐0.8% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8% 553.1 ‐0.8% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1% 532.5 ‐0.8% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3% 443.8 ‐0.9% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7% 334.7 ‐1.0% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5% 136.7 ‐2.1% Tab.34 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5% 572.5 ‐1.1% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8% 525.9 ‐0.3% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5% 458.0 ‐1.1% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1% 434.8 0.4% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8% 341.8 ‐0.3% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1% 217.4 0.4% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8% and ‐10.620.8 ‐38.9%, on average) and, also by considering a late maturing variety, a relative stability or slight decrease of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8% and ‐0.4%, on average) (fig.23); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x R² = 0,992 600,0 500,0 y = 0,902x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always a clear shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 600,0 R² = 0,993 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x R² = 0,988 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0
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Samples: Grant Agreement
Crop evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements. The impact of climate change on maximum and effective crop evapotranspiration as well as on net irrigation requirements, also considering the relative effect of selected adaptation strategies (planting dates, variety selection and deficit irrigation strategies), is summarized in the following tables and graphs. In brief, the following observations are reported: ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is projected to reduce for the current variety under “future” (2050) scenario as a consequence of the expected shortening of the crop growing cycle, on average of about ‐10.3‐6.5% with respect to current conditions (2000) (fig. 24 9 and tab. 31tab.15); ‐ on the contrary, if a late maturing variety (2050 late_var) is selected, maximum evapotranspiration is projected to remain almost the same stable or to increase (on average of about ‐0.7+5%) for all the planting dates (fig. 24 9 and tab. 31tab.15); ‐ the relative effect of the projected variation of rainfall patterns seems to be slightly important relevant for the crop water balance, with an average reduction of about ‐2.2 mm during cropping cycle due to their very low values (tab. 32tab.16); ‐ maximum seasonal crop evapotranspiration is observed always to increase (in absolute terms) for late (February) planting date with respect to earlier (October) ones, because of the shifting of most of the cycle towards the higher spring‐summer temperatures and the corresponding reduction in the total length season (fig. 24 9 and tab.31tab.15); ‐ effective seasonal crop evapotranspiration and net irrigation requirements are both highly dependent on the irrigation strategy, progressively reducing going from full irrigation to rainfed conditions (fig. 24 9 and tab.33‐34tab.17‐18); ‐ as for ETc_max, also the ETc_eff and NIR are projected to decrease in 2050 if the current variety is used; on the other side, or to increase if a late maturing variety is selected, NIR especially under full irrigated conditions (fig.9 and ETc_eff are always projected to remain relatively stable or slightly reduce (fig. 24 and tab. 33‐34tab.17‐18); Tab.15 – Effect of planting date and variety selection on the maximum crop evapotranspiration of wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Planting date ETc_max 2000 ETc_max 2050 ETc_max 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 591.7 492.1 ‐16.8476.7 436.2 ‐8.5% 557.9 ‐5.7494.5 3.7% november 668.2 584.5 ‐12.5547.4 497.1 ‐9.2% 649.6 ‐2.8562.9 2.8% december 694.8 626.7 ‐9.8609.8 567.3 ‐7.0% 688.1 ‐1.0636.6 4.4% january 661.8 613.3 ‐7.3624.9 590.8 ‐5.5% 676.7 2.3660.2 5.6% february 665.5 627.1 ‐5.8667.6 644.6 ‐3.4% 686.6 3.2719.9 7.8% average 656.4 588.7 ‐10.3585.3 547.2 ‐6.5% 651.8 ‐0.7614.8 5.0% Planting date Rain_eff 2000 Rain_eff 2050 Rain_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) october 89.7 79.9 ‐10.983.0 78.6 ‐5.3% 85.2 ‐5.083.9 1.1% november 87.0 81.8 ‐6.080.8 ‐7.1% 84.8 ‐2.682.8 ‐4.9% december 68.4 66.8 ‐2.4% 66.8 ‐2.4% january 41.0 42.5 3.7% 42.5 3.7% february 32.3 36.6 13.3% 36.6 13.3% average 63.7 61.5 ‐3.462.3 61.0 ‐2.1% 63.2 ‐0.862.5 0.3% Irrigation strategy ETc_eff 2000 ETc_eff 2050 ETc_eff 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 654.6 587.4 ‐10.3585.2 547.1 ‐6.5% 650.1 ‐0.7614.7 5.1% mild1 612.9 551.5 ‐10.0559.9 512.9 ‐8.4% 608.2 ‐0.8588.8 5.2% mild2 557.5 502.9 ‐9.8522.0 490.2 ‐6.1% 553.1 ‐0.8544.1 4.2% medium 536.6 482.6 ‐10.1483.4 414.8 ‐14.2% 532.5 ‐0.8503.3 4.1% severe1 447.9 406.3 ‐9.3432.2 398.9 ‐7.7% 443.8 ‐0.9450.1 4.1% severe2 338.2 308.7 ‐8.7332.8 295.5 ‐11.2% 334.7 ‐1.0341.6 2.7% rainfed 139.7 134.7 ‐3.5179.1 173.6 ‐3.1% 136.7 ‐2.1176.5 ‐1.5% Tab.34 – Effect of irrigation strategies and variety selection on the net irrigation requirements of potato in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions. Irrigation strategy NIR 2000 NIR 2050 NIR 2050 late_var [mm/season] [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) [mm/season] (variation vs 2000) full 579.0 512.4 ‐11.5486.3 454.7 ‐6.5% 572.5 ‐1.1516.3 6.2% mild1 527.4 470.4 ‐10.8435.3 407.7 ‐6.3% 525.9 ‐0.3470.1 8.0% mild2 463.2 409.9 ‐11.5389.1 363.7 ‐6.5% 458.0 ‐1.1413.1 6.2% medium 433.2 393.7 ‐9.1339.9 288.4 ‐15.1% 434.8 0.4375.6 10.5% severe1 342.8 305.7 ‐10.8282.9 265.0 ‐6.3% 341.8 ‐0.3305.6 8.0% severe2 216.6 196.9 ‐9.1169.9 144.2 ‐15.1% 217.4 0.4187.8 10.5% rainfed 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% ‐ by plotting together the values of seasonal ETc_eff and NIR (obtained under different irrigation strategies and variety) for different climate scenarios, there is a clear prediction of their reduction (respectively of about ‐9.8‐8.6% and ‐10.6‐7.7%, on average) andwhile, also by considering a late maturing variety, a relative stability or slight decrease an increase of both is predicted (respectively of about ‐0.8+4.4% and ‐0.4+8%, on average) (fig.23)fig. 8); 800,0 700,0 y = 0,992x 1,044x R² = 0,992 0,995 600,0 500,0 400,0 y = 0,902x 0,916x R² = 0,984 400,0 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 100,0 2000 vs 2050 late_var 100,0 Lineare (2000 vs 2050) 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 ‐ the cumulative curves of ETc_max in 2050 (versus 2000) show always a clear (also under different planting dates) their shifting towards higher values, thus representing the relative increase in the daily crop water requirements, although with a decrease in the cumulative final value (depending on the anticipated ending of the cycle) (fig.25fig. 10). 800,0 700,0 y = 0,996x 1,080x 600,0 R² = 0,993 0,991 500,0 400,0 y = 0,894x 0,923x R² = 0,988 0,987 300,0 2000 vs 2050 200,0 2000 vs 2050 100,0 late_var 0,0 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0800,0 800,0 ETc_max 2000 700,0 ETc_max 2050 600,0 ETc_max 2050 late_var 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 october november december january february average 800,0 ETc_eff 2000 700,0 ETc_eff 2050 600,0 ETc_eff 2050 late_var 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 800,0 NIR 2000 700,0 NIR 2050 600,0 NIR 2050 late_var 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 February2050 February2000 0 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 600 500 400 300 200 100 November2050 November2000 0 1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 Fig. 10 – Cumulative curves of maximum crop evapotranspiration as affected by different planting date for wheat in Jordan river basin (Jordan) under “present” and “future” climate conditions.
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