Electric System Resource Portfolio Risk Analysis Sample Clauses

Electric System Resource Portfolio Risk Analysis. The Recipient shall: • Populate updated RESOLVE model with specific extreme events that the system should be resilient against, as identified in Task 2. • Add explicit risk-mitigation objective/constraints to the model, based on the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of outages. This should transform the optimization into a multi- objective function, formulated as “Portfolio Cost vs System Risk” problem. • Parameterized the objective function and explore the feasibility space of the cost risk objectives. • Develop “risk-averse” resource portfolios for different levels of risk-aversion, leveraging newly developed RESOLVE functionality in Task 4, which will consider system resilience to extreme or high-impact, low probability events . • Evaluate how “risk-averse” resource portfolios developed in this task differ from portfolios developed in Task 6 (deterministic) and Task 7 (under uncertainty), using metrics including but not limited to: o Expected investment & operational cost; o Variance in system operation costs under various weather years & extreme events; o Variance in policy attainment (e.g., GHG emissions, RPS/SB 100 generation) under various weather years & extreme events; o System reliability metrics (e.g., XXXX, LOLH, EUE), as reported through RECAP reliability simulations under various weather years & extreme events; o Conditional value at risk (CVaR) of grid outages; o Visualize tradeoff between risk of grid outages and cost (Pareto front), identifying “non-dominated” portfolios that represent best solution given balance between risk & cost; and o Calculate the worst-case scenarios of outages. • Summarize portfolio results in Risk-Averse Resource Portfolio Study presentation
Sample 1
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