Key population drivers Sample Clauses

Key population drivers knowledge gaps and priorities for action Based on the sensitivity tests using the baseline model built from South African data, four key demographic parameters appear to drive population dynamics for GCC:  Percentage of adult females breeding  Breeding success  Adult mortality  Juvenile mortality Although demographic data from East Africa were not adequate to develop a realistic representation of these populations, workshop participants were able to qualitatively assess how the threats to GCCs across their range may influence the key demographic drivers. The outcome of these discussions is summarized in Table 6. Table 6: The potential influence of different causes of decline on GCC demographic rates Cause of decline Proportion of females breeding Breeding success Juvenile mortality Adult mortality Loss of habitat including conversion to agriculture, mining ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ Degradation of habitat including disturbance, encroachment ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ Direct mortality including fire, poisoning, persecution, poaching, power line collisions - ↓ ↑ ↑ GCC population dynamics appear to be very sensitive to rates of adult mortality. In our model, just a 7.2% increase in adult mortality rates resulted in negative growth rates – the only sensitivity analysis with a negative growth rate among the range of scenarios we tested. It is conceivable that an increase of this nature could be observed, given that adult mortality is likely to be strongly impacted by habitat transformation and encroachment, but particularly by the projected increased threat from power lines across the GCCs range. Understanding the links between key demographic drivers and major threats to GCCs is fundamental for developing effective strategies for their long-term conservation. Table 7 provides some priority research questions in this regard. Table 7: Key demographic research questions for GCCs Critical demographic factors Questions Proportion of females breeding What proportion of females breed/pair up? What is the influence of habitat loss and degradation? Rates of habitat loss/degradation? Links to proportion breeding? Breeding success How many chicks are produced per pair? How is this influenced by direct pre-fledging mortality? Fire, poisoning, persecution, poaching, etc. What is the influence of habitat loss and degradation? Juvenile mortality What % of fledglings survive to 1 year? How is this influenced by direct post-fledging mortality? Fire, poisoning, persecution, poaching, collisions, etc. What is th...