Scenario 2035 and 2050 Sample Clauses

Scenario 2035 and 2050. The demand model is built using stocks, flows, parameters and variables. A brief explanation of these is given in Figure 36. The yearlyGdpGrowth rate and the tertiaryEducationShareGrowth rate are both variables. For every year, each growth rate is multiplied by the respective elasticity and subsequently feeds the flow rateofDemandChange. The rateofDemandChange feeds the stock PassengerTrafficVolumes as an inflow. A parameter provides the initial value of passenger traffic volume for 2012, 1 384 099 000 passengers. The model is depicted in Figure 35. Figure 35: Passenger demand model (own depiction) 11 BCG (2006) shows a similar GDP elasticity in respect to passenger growth of 1.7 for international passengers from 1995 to 2000 (calculated taking the change in passenger growth (in CAGR) divided by the change in the real GDP growth). Taking GDP as proxy for income, similar values can be found in other studies. For instance, for developed economies such as the EU28 and EFTA countries, IATA (2008) estimated an income elasticity of air passenger demand from 1.3 to 1.6 (for short- and medium-haul flights). The Department for Transport (2013) calculated an income elasticity of overall 1.3 for the UK. Figure 36: Causal loop diagram and passenger demand model explanation (own depiction) Due to a decreasing GDP in 2012, demand growth is negative in the first modelled years. After that, both for 2035 and 2050 the demand is positively influenced by the drivers as can be seen in the time plot in Figure 37. From 2035 onwards, demand grows constantly at a rate around 3.5 per cent per year, only based on yearlyGdpGrowth and tertiaryEducationShareGrowth. Looking back at the causal loop diagram, it can be seen that these two drivers do not just influence demand but also each other. GDP_Growth increases Income and an increase in Income results in a higher Education_Level.
Sample 1
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