Changed Geopolitical Realities in West Asia. What is the issue? Iran‘s senior-most nuclear scientist Xxxxxx Xxxxxxxxxxx was assassinated recently near Tehran. Iran sees indications of Israeli role in this. In this context, here is how India, Pakistan and Bangladesh must deal with the changing geopolitical realities in West Asia. What does the assassination signify? The murder underlines a familiar political truth in the Middle East. o It is not that important if you are right or wrong; what really matters is whether you are weak or strong. In this light, the assassination of Xxxxxx Xxxxxxxxxxx highlights Iran‘s growing strategic vulnerabilities. It also points to a continuing regional realignment against Iran marked by the normalisation of ties between some key Arab states and Israel. This geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East has major consequences for the Indian subcontinent, which has intimate religious, economic, and strategic ties with the Middle East. What are the emerging trends in the Middle East? Iran’s growing isolation in the region The U.S. under Xxxxx administration, Israel and the Gulf Arabs have a shared interest in preventing Xxx Xxxxx from renewing nuclear diplomacy with Iran and ending its isolation. The assassination of Xxxxxxxxxxx is about achieving that political objective. If Iran retaliates vigorously, it will invite an all-out confrontation with Israel and the US. This will kill the prospects for a productive engagement with the Xxxxx administration. On the other hand, holding back will expose Iran‘s weakness. o It will also sharpen Iran‘s internal divisions between pragmatists who want to engage the US and the hardliners who want a confrontation. The frequent attacks on high-profile Iranian targets raise questions about the hostile penetration of Iran‘s society. The exposure of Iran‘s internal political weakness is compounded by the massive economic pain imposed by the U.S. Rapid transformation of Arab relations with Israel The fear of Iran has been driving Gulf Arabs to embrace Israel. In the recent days, Bahrain and the UAE have normalised ties with Israel. There is speculation of an impending normalisation of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Deepening rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey Saudi Arabia and Turkey are in a tussle for the leadership of the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE want to return the Middle East towards political and religious moderation. But the once secular Turkey under Xxxxx Xxxxxx Xxxx...
