Framework and scenario setting Sample Clauses

Framework and scenario setting. We follow the same EU-wide target as in the wind-expansion scenario but apply it to PV (as the EWEA does not specify a similar scenario for solar PV), in order to make the analyses of wind versus PV-expansion comparable. We thus assume that the share of PV of EU’s electricity demand is 24.4% by 2030. The xxxxxxx00 (2011) share of solar power of overall electricity demand is 1.4% (EC, 2016), meaning that a gap of 23% needs to be closed to reach the target. In our scenario this means an additional supply of 766 TWh from PV, replacing the same amount of conventional electricity.14 The necessary regional PV capacity expansion is based on calculations from a PV-insolation optimization model (based on Xxxxxxxxx et al., 2013). Table 5 summarizes the data used for this part of the analysis. The highest contribution to the expansion of PV capacity makes SEU (due to higher insolation and due to size) but also considerable shares are located in NEU, EEU and WEU (also due to a scale effect). PV capacity factors vary between 11% (northern regions) and 18% (southern regions) and are thus lower than for wind (mainly due to the fact that PV is inactive during night). The additional generation in terms of TWh leads to PV generation shares of up to 91% (in Greece). Table 5 Regional contributions of PV expansion [%], additional TWh supplied, regional capacity factors and additional necessary capacity [GW] until 2030 (source: own calculations) NEU WEU AUT EEU SEU GRC Regional contributions to expansion 19% 12% 3% 16% 42% 7% Capacity factor (Xxxxxxxxx et al., 2013) 11% 13% 13% 13% 18% 17% Additional capacity [GW] 144.77 82.52 21.71 108.39 202.79 36.40 Additional PV electricity supply targets [TWh] 141.81 94.43 25.03 126.46 324.67 54.06 PV share in electricity generation in 2030 21% 7% 38% 28% 49% 91% 13 Since the CGE model’s base year is 2011, we take 2011 to describe the “current” state.
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