Main Forecast in SAS Sample Clauses

Main Forecast in SAS. This section describes the parameters and methodology used in the main forecasting method based in the SAS platform. The present forecasting method enables estimation of claims per vehicle per assembly month based on currently known warranty level – either number of claims or money value of claims. The method utilizes two main parameters in the calculation:  Distribution of repairs during the warranty year (λt) –It has been observed historically that values of the parameter λt differ depending upon the department responsible for the occurrence of any specific claim. This knowledge is reaffirmed by the output of the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test described in section 4.3 afterwards, wherein a significant difference is observed between various values of the responsible departments with regards to the quantity and money value of claims. Hence, the claims are divided into categories of their responsible departments and calculation of λt is done separately for each of them.  Distribution of delay in claim reporting (Fl) – After the claim has been registered, there is usually some delay before the settlement is done. This delay mainly occurs between the repair and registration of claim but might also occur because of discussion between customers’ claim and organisation’s liability as per warranty definitions. The calculated parameters λt and Fl are then used to generate a forecast factor for each of the assembly months. The estimation of claims per vehicle (qx) for a specific assembly month x is done from the currently known number of claims (ñx) divided by the Forecast factor as shown in. Eq. 2.1. ̂ = ̃̂ ………………… (2.1) In order to estimate the number of claims per vehicle for any assembly month, calculation of parameters λt and Fl is done on the basis of recent vehicles that have finished their basic warranty of one year but have not yet finished two years of use. An important point to be mentioned here is the concept of delivery window.  Delivery window – It refers to the option of selectively choosing the recent vehicles based on their delivery times. Delivery time means the time it takes form the assembly of the vehicle till the delivery of the vehicle. Traditionally, the selection of recent truck population is controlled by the provision of delivery window of 7 months whereby only the vehicles with delivery time within 7 months are included. Similarly, buses and engines have different provisions of delivery window. Selection of vehicles in this way ens...
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Related to Main Forecast in SAS

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