Effect of Limiting Large Cruise Ship Transits Based on Wind Sample Clauses

Effect of Limiting Large Cruise Ship Transits Based on Wind. Gusting wind has been identified as a primary cause of the extreme off-track excursions of large cruise ships operating in Tongass Narrows. An auxiliary investigation was undertaken to ascertain the potential mitigating effects of restricting large cruise ship transits under the bridge based on one-minute average wind speed. One-minute average wind speed was selected as being statistically more reliable than measures of gusting wind behavior. Wind gust behavior is presumed to be parametrically dependent on the one-minute average wind. For the purposes of this auxiliary analysis it is presumed that large cruise ships do not transit under bridges located at C3(a) or C4 if the one-minute average wind exceeds the specified limiting wind speed. When the wind exceeds the limiting wind speed cruise ships would presumably depart to or arrive from the south through Xxxxxxx Passage. 30000 Effect of Wind Speed Limitations at High Bridge Alternatives C3(a) and C4 on Expected Number of Large Cruise Ship Allisions in 50 Years 746 496 330 300 26,639 Cruise Ship Transits in 50 Years Expected Number of Large Cruise Ships Diverted in 50 Years Expected Number of Large Cruise Ship Allisions in 50 Years 25000 250 20000 Number of Large Cruise Ships Diverted H=550 ft. Expected Allisions for Horizontal Clearance, H 220 200 15000 H=600 ft. H=650 ft. 150 10000 244 Expected groundings/allisions in 687 foot natural channel near Charcoal Point H=700 ft. H=750 ft. 100 5000 H=800 ft. H=900 ft. 50 Limiting Wind Speed For Large Cruise Ship Transits Under Bridge (knots) FIGURE 4.15 EFFECT OF WIND SPEED LIMITATIONS ON LARGE CRUISE SHIP TRANSITS FOR ALTERNATIVES C3(A) AND C4 Figure 4.15 shows the effect of horizontal clearance and wind speed limitations on the expected number of potential cruise ship allisions in 50 years and the number of cruise ships that are diverted through Xxxxxxx Passage as a function of limiting wind speed. The natural channel in the vicinity of bridge alignments C3(a) and C4 is about 1340 feet and the expected number of potential groundings in fifty years approaches one in the absence of any operating restrictions based on wind speed. However, near Charcoal Point, adjacent to the Ketchikan shipyard, the natural channel width narrows to about 687 feet. Here the expected number of potential groundings in fifty years is about 244 in the absence of any restrictions based on wind speed. The most probable number of groundings in the vicinity of Charcoal Point is 20 (approx...
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