Aviation Activity Evaluation and Projections Sample Clauses

Aviation Activity Evaluation and Projections. The Consultant will compile a summary of aviation activity and operational data for the Airport to indicate historical growth and present a basis for statistical analysis of based aircraft, aircraft mix, annual aircraft operations, and related factors. Projections of short-, intermediate-, and long-term demand levels (i.e., 5, 10, and 20-years) will be developed. As part of this element, appropriate regional, state, and national aviation trends and existing (independent) projections will be investigated. Historical aviation activity will also be analyzed for the Airport by demand component. Through interviews, as well as Airport records, the FAA’s TAF, the FAA’s Traffic Flow Management System Counts (TFMSC), and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), data for activity levels, fleet mix, and based aircraft will be obtained. Consideration will also be given to the Airport’s ability to transition out of the EAS program. The following components of aviation demand will be projected for the 5-, 10-, and 20-year timeframes:  Passenger enplanements o Total enplanements o Peak hour enplanements  Aircraft operations o Commercial Service o General aviation (local/itinerant) o Military o Peak hour operations  Based aircraft by type (utilizing National Based Aircraft Inventory data) o Single-engine o Multi-engine o Turboprop o Turbojet o Rotor  Aircraft fleet mix (based and operational)  Air cargo/freight o Volume o Aircraft operations  Critical aircraft by Runway Design Code (RDC) Projections of aviation demand will be developed using standard forecasting methodologies, such as market share, regression analysis, time series analysis, and trend line analysis. The Consultant will assess these forecasts with varying levels of certainty, analyzing the probability of a low, mid-level and high forecast scenario for total based aircraft, total aircraft operations, and total enplanements, and ultimately recommending a preferred forecast for each factor. Results of this element will be used to determine future needs for airside, landside, and support facility components at the Airport. Methodologies used in this task will be reviewed with Airport staff and the FAA Denver ADO before the element is finalized. Close coordination will be maintained to ensure acceptance of the approach to the aviation activity projections.
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