Forecasts of Aviation Activity. The importance of assessing future trends relating to passenger utilization and operational activity levels is important in the development of the Terminal Area Plan in that many of the proposals and recommendations of the plan are principally based on these trends. The HDN Master Plan completed in 2015 contained a comprehensive aviation activity forecast and this element will include an update to those forecasts in consideration of current industry trends as well as an air service, passenger demand analysis specific to HDN. A peak hour assessment will also be completed.
Forecasts of Aviation Activity. Development of aviation demand projections is an important element in the Master Plan Study process. It is important data for determining current and future airport needs and assessing the environmental effects of proposed actions. Many of the proposals and recommendations of the Study are based on projected demands identified in the forecasts. Economic implications of the future growth and development are determined on future aviation activity projections. To a certain degree, this aspect of the master planning process is the hub for the recommendations provided in the remainder of the plan. Therefore, the importance of accurate and defensible forecasts must be emphasized. Regarding establishment of a recommended forecast, a low forecast scenario will be established to use in testing to assure that financial recommendations are fiscally judicious, and a high forecast will be established to test the adequacy of programmed facility improvements to accommodate demand that is beyond the recommended forecast. The forecast will be submitted to FAA for approval and will be prepared in accordance with current FAA guidance. In preparing the forecast, the consultant team will prepare a reliable activity baseline, select an appropriate forecast methodology, and compare it to other forecasts for reasonableness. The forecast will include a table comparing the selected forecast to SWO’s TAF and a summary table of the selected forecast including annual growth/decline rates. These tables are required for FAA approval.
Forecasts of Aviation Activity. Development of aviation demand projections is an important element in the Master Plan Study process and is important data to be used in determining current and future Airport needs; in assessing the environmental effects of proposed actions; and in determining the economic implications of future growth and development. Regarding establishment of a recommended forecast for each component of aviation demand, a low forecast scenario will be established to use in testing to assure that financial recommendations are fiscally judicious, and a high forecast will be established to test the adequacy of programmed facility improvements to accommodate demand that is beyond the recommended forecast. The forecast will be submitted to FAA for approval and will be prepared in accordance with current FAA guidance, including Forecasting Aviation Activity by Airport (July 2001) and Guidance on Review and Approval of Local Aviation Forecasts (June 2008). In preparing the forecast, the Consultant will develop a reliable activity baseline, select an appropriate forecast methodology, and compare it to other forecasts for reasonableness. The forecast will include a table comparing the selected forecast to the Airport’s FAA-prepared Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and a summary table of the selected forecast, including annual growth/decline rates. These tables are required for FAA approval. Given the differences in actual operations in CY2018 versus the current February 2019 FAA TAF, it is highly likely that the Master Plan forecasts of total operations will exceed the TAF consistency limits and will require additional FAA review and approval. Another problem is the classification of Xxxx flight training operations as military. These operations are conducted by a civilian flight school under contract with the Department of Defense and are conducted under civilian flight rules (Part 61 or 141). As such, the FAA has determined these operations should be classified as General Aviation operations for planning and AIP purposes. However; FAA’s Pueblo Air Traffic Control Tower counts Xxxx operations as military operations and these counts are used for the TAF, which currently projects zero (0) percent growth for military operations through the planning period. To reconcile these differences, the Consultant Team will request the FAA assistance in updating the TAF to better reflect the preferred forecast.
Forecasts of Aviation Activity. A forecast of aviation activity will be developed from the FAA Terminal Area Forecast. FAA Aviation Forecasts and the state/local system plan forecasts will be used as the base line for BQK aviation demand activity forecast.
Forecasts of Aviation Activity. (Lump Sum)
