Countrywide daily loss Sample Clauses

Countrywide daily loss. Our second appraisal of the model performance is based upon country-wide daily losses. The spatial aggregation has the beneficial effects of reducing loss variability and yielding a high number of otherwise spatially separated loss events. Figure 20 shows the model predictions for the country-wide loss ratio plotted against the observations from insurance data. Focusing the initial examination onto results based on DWD A DWD B ERA Interim 2560 1280 640 320 160 80 CVRMSE Figure 19: Coefficients of variation of the root mean squared error per district, evaluated for the entire 11-year modeling period. Depicted is the CVRMSE based on the minimum value found for any of the four models. Panels A and B show results obtained from DWD and ERA Interim wind gust data, respectively. wind observations (Fig. 20A) several important aspects are revealed. First of all, the loss predictions from all models exhibit a very high variability in the range of few orders of magnitude. Since the variability cannot be significantly reduced by model choice, it may be a consequence of other aspects, such as the stochastic nature of the building damage, measurement error of wind speed, or the omission of further explanatory parameters. Additionally, the residuals of the model estimates follow a broadly skewed distribution, with the effect that some observations may drastically exceed expected values drawn from simulation. Two models, K and P, show a lower bound for the expected value of predicted loss. In the case of K this is a direct consequence of model design, which involves a constant baseline loss that accounts for any loss beneath the local 98th wind percentile. For model P, a similar lower bound exists, which reflects the expected value of the noise level present in the loss data at any wind speed. When considering the binned loss ratios (black circles) in Fig. 20A, both models X and H exhibit an underestimation of small losses, which for H is more pronounced. A comparison with Fig. 18 shows that this behaviour is in line with the rapid convergence to zero of the damage curve for model H. Unsurprisingly, model P shows good agreement of binned loss ratios over a wide range of loss, due to the fact that this model is the only one specifically designed to match also the low and medium loss ranges. In comparison, model K maps a considerably larger fraction of losses onto its lower bound (baseline loss) and seems to underestimate losses especially in the region around 10−6. This behaviour ...