Note on Driving Forces and Emissionsc Sample Clauses

Note on Driving Forces and Emissionsc. The RAINS model relies on data from external bodies: countries, semi-official bodies, and others. These data sets can have a very limited overlap and so a large degree of operational flexibility is required to reconcile them. On the whole the RAINS team have operational procedures designed to check that emission data are as free from omission, error and material misstatement as currently possible12. These procedures place emphasis on dialogue with countries to reconcile aggregated results, understand the causes of differences, and bring about data convergence. As a result it is unlikely that the current emission estimates account for significant unidentified bias in the RAINS output. Estimates of future activity levels are problematic. IIASA is reliant on the PRIMES and TREMOVE ‘systems’ and the accuracy of these inputs to RAINS is, to a large extent, outside the IIASA/RAINS sphere of influence. The largest errors/misstatements probably reside in the scenario related data from these external bodies. While it is sensible for IIASA to import some of the RAINS components (e.g. in the form of accepting scenarios from PRIMES and TREMOVE) such externally created scenarios may have a decisive impact on projected emissions and abatement cost curves. This impact is especially important since it leaves national governments and their experts – who might verify those cost curves - with even greater uncertainty in the Model’s robustness. As a consequence limited knowledge of activity is likely to be the largest source of potential error/misstatement in the RAINS output. c Apart from the assessment of costs, the Review Team were requested not to cover in detail the quality of the input data. It has been necessary, however, to examine those other aspects of the input data that are likely to have a significant impact on the effectiveness of the RAINS modelling and which, as a consequence, may introduce bias or misunderstanding – the source, suitability, completeness, and inexactness etc. The emission calculation algorithm is not that used by countries to calculate and report national emissions, it is a variant on it that allows for the introduction of certain types of abatement techniques13. The algorithm while, not ideally suited to non- technical abatement options, is technically defensible under their current conditions of use14. The IIASA team are aware of the potential for bias and include in their country bilateral discussions. The bias likely to result from taking ...
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