Niches. Service innovations tend not to be utterly smooth in the beginning. There is still a lot of experimentation with user practices, business models, products, regulatory structures, infrastructure and technology, which makes it hard for them to compete on the market against established services (Schot/Xxxxx 2008: 538). The specific market itself might even be not yet fully developed (see Figure 9)—or very small and already dominated by the few services that were able to establish themselves in their niche. Newcomers will thus hardly gain a share, but rather have to find their own niches: “for many innovations, especially with sustainability promise, market niches and user demands are not readily available because the innovations are not minor variations from the prevailing […] but differ radically from them” (ibid.: 539). Moreover, clever niche management will require to link niches at some point. FIGURE 9: FROM NICHE DYNAMICS TO REGIME SHIFT (ADAPTED FROM SCHOT/XXXXX 2008: 540) Niches here are understood as protected spaces for vulnerable novelties (Rip 2012: 162). They are typically carved out in selection environments and by some boundary maintenance. One key problem is to find a niche, e.g. by help of benevolent sponsors or selectors, and to enter mini-paths. Another chief problem is to avoid lock-in, which could lead to the risk not to survive in the wider world. Further research and conceptualisation on multi-level transition pathways indicates how important “the timing of land- scape pressure on regimes with regard to then state of niche-development” is (Xxxxx/Xxxxx 2010: 54): “If landscape pressure occurs at a time when niche-innovations are not yet fully developed, the transi- tion path will be different from when they are in fact fully developed. Whether or not niche-develop- ments are fully developed is not entirely an objective matter. Niche-actors may have somewhat differ- ent perceptions that regime-actors. Nevertheless, we propose the following proxies as reasonable in- dicators for the stabilization of viable niche-developments that are ready to break through more widely: a) learning processes have stabilized in a dominant design; b) powerful actors have joined the support network; c) price/performance improvements have improved and there are strong expecta- tions of further improvement (e.g. learning curves); d) the innovation is used in market niches, which cumulatively amount to more than 5% market share. Novelty is always present, but this...
