Scenario 1: International competition Sample Clauses

Scenario 1: International competition. 4.1.1 The narrative In 2030, under this narrative, global markets are totally liberalized either through bi- or multilat- eral agreements. Contrary to recommendations made by some experts in the late 2010s (e.g. for the CETA in France Xxxxxxxx et al., 2017), non-tariff barriers based on sustainability or sanitary criteria have not been set up. As a consequence, European producers, and more generally all Eu- ropean agri-food actors are competing with new global players from emerging countries, often more competitive. Global demand for food is on the rise again and leads to relatively high prices. Food chains are globalized both for raw commodities as well as for a large number of processed food products and specialty/luxury products. Although an important share of EU agri-food exports still consists in primary agricultural products, the export market is dominated by processed food as a result of the EU’s competitive advantage in this sector. The EU is a global export leader of high value added specialty products, notably wine and other alcoholic beverage, as well as cured meat and cheese. Meanwhile, the majority of consumers in the EU favour convenience and low prices over environ- mental criteria, with not so much consideration for health and environmental issues. Diets across the EU converge towards calorific processed food and higher meat consumption, with the increase in pork and poultry consumption compensating for the decrease in that of bovine meat. Consum- ers’ demand for healthy, environmentally friendly food exists but fuels what remains a secondary and highly segmented market. In total, the market share of organic products in the EU is about 4% under this narrative. Liberalized global markets offer a great variety of food to consumers, with a heavy emphasis on prepared food (including frozen) as well as a large diversity of fresh fruits and vegetables from faraway locations. The share of the household budget that is spent for food de- creases to 10%. Technology development in the agricultural sector is primarily driven by the private sector and oriented towards productivity gains through yield increases; other criteria (such as resilience to, or mitigation of, the impacts of climate change) remain secondary. Agrochemical and agricultural equipment companies lead and provide the lion share of investments in research and develop- ment in the agri-food sector, focusing their efforts on areas where there is the highest potential for short- to medium-...