Uncertainty in Performance Outcomes Sample Clauses

Uncertainty in Performance Outcomes. The effect of performance outcomes on subsequent behavior has also received scholarly attention. Achieving a goal can reinforce behavior, such as losing weight and working out, since the behavior emphasizes the importance of the goal (Shah, Kruglanski, and Xxxxxxxx 2002). Goal achievement can even increase subsequent effort as consumers learn more about themselves and the system in which they participate (Drèze and Xxxxx 2011). In the case of loyalty programs, consumers may learn the value of participating by experiencing the reward program benefits that their purchasing efforts translate into. Failing to achieve goals, though, can decrease subsequent performance (Xxxxx and Xxxxxx 2004). These differences in subsequent behaviors may reflect the attributions consumers make about outcomes. In deterministic systems such as standard loyalty programs, consumers tend to attribute goal failure to their lack of effort or unrealistic task requirements. Since loyalty program members accumulate points precisely according to their spending decisions and earn status by meeting pre-specified purchasing requirements, they explicitly control their progress. Thus, if loyalty members believe their efforts failed to achieve status, they would simply need to increase their future effort levels to the amount explicitly required. Believing the task is difficult to achieve, though, will lead members to decrease their commitment and motivation towards the goal (Zhang and Xxxxx 2010). In probabilistic systems such as gamified applications, the attributions consumers engage in that govern their subsequent behavior may depend on how they interpret results (Ayton and Xxxxxxx 2004; Xxxxx and Corpus 2004; Xxxxxxxxxx and Xxxx 1993). When consumers believe the underlying process is random, they tend to follow the “Gambler’s fallacy,” allowing recently observed outcomes to drive their expectations of future outcomes. For example, if one player outcome occurred for an unusual amount of time in the past several rounds of a series of independent events, consumers will believe the probability of that particular outcome occurring in the near future will be lower since it already experienced its “share.” When consumers believe a task is skill-based, they tend to follow the “Hot-hand fallacy”, believing the abnormal trend described above will persist into the near future because the player is on a hot streak. In gamification settings, outcomes are uncertain by design, rendering how players react...