Influence of aerosols Sample Clauses

Influence of aerosols. A key uncertainty in our assessment of future climate change is how aerosol particles interact with the atmosphere, specifically by scattering or absorbing sunlight either themselves or through their influence on cloud properties. XXXXXXX has specifically investigated this issue for southern West Africa for the first time and has demonstrated that interactions between aerosol particles, clouds, precipitation and sunlight are highly complex. Clouds form through condensation of water vapour on particles. Changes in their number and characteristics can thus affect cloud properties and also precipitation. Over southern West Africa, however, the concentration of particles from local emissions and smoke imported from Central Africa is already so high that there are always a large number of particles and whilst further additions affect cloud properties such enhancements have little effect on precipitation. A further deterioration in particle pollution will, therefore, have a small effect on rainfall through changes in cloud properties. Aerosols also reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface. The humid environment during the wet summer monsoon allows a substantial uptake of water, particularly in the morning hours. The optical extinction can increase by about a factor of 6 during these periods, leading to an overall doubling of the aerosol optical depth. Reductions in surface heating of 20 Wm-2 through this process were seen. Model simulations show that this decreases the temperature contrast between land and sea and so delays the inland progression of the coastal front during the late afternoon and evening by up to 30 km and the daytime development from low stratus clouds to deeper stratocumulus and then cumulus by 1–2 hours. There are first indications that the dimming leads to a reduction in rainfall, with possible impacts on food production, water availability and hydropower. The reduction of direct sunlight also affects plants and photovoltaic electricity generation. Increasing aerosol emissions and/or a shift to particles that more easily take up water such as sulfates or nitrates, as is likely with increased industrialization, will exacerbate these impacts. Weather forecast model results with and without interactive aerosols show that aerosol biases which produce small effects on time-scales of days might accumulate over weeks to months. Comparing direct aerosol effects on monthly predictions using ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction System with cl...
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