Seasonal models. The seasonal models used in the calculations are the Summer Peak Load Operating model and the Winter Peak Load Operating model, as modified for use in the transmission service charge computations. Modifications to the models include some AREA renumbering and required changes to phase shifter and DC line representation as outlined in sections 2.1.5 and 2.1.6, respectively. Estimated rates for future Summer and Winter seasons may be calculated using the appropriate planning model from the annual series of MAPP models. 2.1.2 Transmission Elements Included xx xhe Transmission Service Charge Calculations - All transmission lines and terminal equipment of 115 kV and higher voltage modeled by a Member may be included in the transmission service charge calculations. All transformers modeled by a Member with a secondary voltage of 115 kV or higher may be included. All other transmission elements are excluded, except as provided in section 2.1.4. Network branches below the 115 kV level that are present in the loadflow model participate in the determination of power flow on the network, but are excluded from participation in determination of the transmission service charge rates since there are no rents paid for the use of these branches, except as provided in section 2.1.4. 2.1.3
Seasonal models. Operational seasonal predictions of temperature and precipitation are downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change data Service (C3S) in GRIB format from the seasonal prediction systems considered, e. g. European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 5 (SEAS5). These data are stored in the BSC infrastructure and formatted in NetCDF according to internal standards compatible with the INSPIRE directive. The biases detected in the seasonal predictions of temperature and precipitation are corrected within the BSC, both from global and local perspectives. For that purpose, BSC applies a calibration method to improve the reliability of the forecasts and a downscaling technique to provide information in the demo-sites: Raïmat (Codorniu), Quinta-do-Xxxxxx (Xxxxxxxxx) and Xxxxxxxxx (Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx). The verification of these already bias-adjusted predictions against observational references is performed within the BSC, considering the re-forecasts available from the seasonal prediction systems covering the period 1981-2015. The used observational references are both the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the in-situ observations from the three demo sites. The final product to be delivered in the seasonal service consists in the tercile probability of the variables considered and ranked probability skill score, RPSS, as a skill measure. It is formatted into GEOJSON files and uploaded to the VDI. Simultaneously, the forecasts for the next seven months in the three demo-sites are formatted in a .csv format to be ingested by the phenological IRTA models. In Figure 18: Service’s intermediate product development within the BSC we depict the workflow of the work performed within the BSC before uploading the data to the VDI. Service’s intermediate product Raw variables (temperature, precipitation) Bias adjusted variables Skill associated to the variables Forecast quality assessment Bias adjustment / downscaling with demo- site observations / reanalyses Operational seasonal predictions Seasonal predictions of the past VDI Figure 18: Service’s intermediate product development within the BSC
