IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. 21.1 There is growing evidence that present climate change is already affecting marine ecosystems at all levels of the food webs, and projection of future change suggest that these effects will increase considerably. For this reason the Parties recognise that it is important to review the potential impact of global climate change and climate oscillations on the conservation status of albatrosses and petrels.
21.2 Five recent scientific papers were provided by France to support the review. Demographic analyses on ACAP species in the Indian Ocean indicate that climate changes mainly impact fecundity parameters of the populations, either positively, or negatively, while fisheries affect survival parameters negatively (AC6 Inf 22, AC6 Inf 23).
21.3 Since albatrosses and petrels are long lived, the growth rate of their populations is mainly affected by adult survival, and modelling confirms that decline of populations, when it occurs, is due to increased mortality related to longline fishing efforts in the IOTC zone. Modelling of future effects of climate changes on ACAP species, based on coupling of International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and demographic models, indicate that the species that will be most affected by climate in the southern ocean are those breeding in southern sites, whereas subtropical population will probably be less affected (AC6 Inf 20).
21.4 Since these results are based on correlations between climate and demography, it appears important to better understand the mechanistic links involved to be able to make robust predictions, and in particular how climate may affect foraging distribution and success and the consequences on demographic parameters. Over the past 30 years the distribution at sea of several ACAP species has changed significantly (AC6 Inf 21). In particular Wandering Albatross have seen their northern range shifting south. A long term study on tracking of this species confirms this result, and allows understanding the mechanism involved (AC6 Inf 24).
21.5 In the southern ocean, as a result of climate change, westerly winds have increased in intensity and shifted southward. As a result, the Crozet Wandering albatrosses, which use wind as an energy source like all albatrosses and petrels, have shifted their northern range, increased flight speeds, and as a result, their trip duration has decreased, mass of birds has increased by 1kg, and their breeding success has also increased. However IPCC models predict...
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. 21.1 The Chair noted that the potential of global climate change and climate oscillations to impact on the conservation status of albatrosses and petrels had been introduced to discussion at AC4. It was recalled that the meeting considered a relevant publication from Xxxxx Xxxxxxxxxxxx of France and incorporated the topic into the Work Programme of the Advisory Committee.
21.2 France reiterated its interest on this topic and announced that it would present an updated publication of Xx Xxxxxxxxxxxx‘s work at AC6.
21.3 BirdLife noted that at the World Seabird Conference, to be held in Victoria, Canada, 7-11 September 2010, a Symposium will be held on Seabirds and Climate Change. The proceedings of this Symposium are to be published and might provide a useful review of the topic to stimulate debate amongst ACAP members on aspects of particular relevance to species covered by the ACAP Agreement.
21.4 It was also noted by BirdLife that the effects of climate change are likely to particularly impact those species listed on Annex 1 which breed at low lying islands or elevation, including two of the North Pacific albatrosses. It was suggested that Nations with expertise in such species work together to provide information and advice to the Advisory Committee in the future.
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. 16.1 France advised the meeting that over recent years there has been an increasing number of studies on the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species. Recent study syntheses on seabirds show that seabirds, including ACAP species, are affected by climatic changes in addition to fisheries activities. Several studies indicate overall that warm sea- surface temperatures negatively affected demographic parameters, especially breeding success, whereas fisheries affect survival parameters, with only a few species for which fisheries improved breeding success. More recent studies have shown shifts in distribution and breeding phenology related to climate change.
16.2 A recent study on Wandering albatrosses showed that climate related changes in winds pattern in the southern ocean have modified the distribution of the population, and resulted in an improvement of the condition and breeding success of the individuals. Climate factors and fisheries bycatch may simultaneously affect demographic parameters in a complex way, which can be integrated in population models to project population trajectories under future climate or fisheries scenarios.
16.3 Two other consequences of climate change may have significant influences on ACAP species. The USA delegation provided evidence of the high susceptibility of albatross colonies on low atoll islands in the Pacific Ocean that can be submerged during extreme climatic events, and are therefore highly at risk from increase in overall sea level. Finally, the occurrence of diseases outbreaks are known to increase with increasing temperature, and therefore climate change may favour in the future disease propagation in the range of ACAP species.
16.4 Chile thanked France for its work, and hoped that this research on ACAP species will continue. The results are of value to Parties in education and outreach for the conservation of albatrosses and petrels.
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Election and appointment of AC Officers
IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. Fifth Meeting of Parties 20.1 Timing and venue 20.2 Draft Agenda 20. Ninth Meeting of the Advisory Committee 21.1 Timing and Venue
