Optimism Bias. The Project Team followed HM Treasury Green Book guidance and the Risk Management Guide in the Scottish Capital Investment Manual to determine the level of Optimism Bias that should be applied to the Proposed Solution, based on each of the proposed solutions requiring a new build hospital. The upper bound percentage was calculated be determining the build complexity, location, scope of the scheme and changes to service delivery. The team then worked through an assessment of the mitigation already carried out based on experience of previous projects to determine the mitigation factor to be applied to the upper bound percentage. The resulting Optimism Bias rate is summarised in the table below. Description Proposed Solution Upper Bound % 39.5% Mitigation Factor 90.4% Optimism Bias 35.7% As the project progresses and detailed designs are developed, the level of optimism bias applied to the preferred solution will be reviewed and considered against the level of quantified risk that can be established. The expectation is that the more risks that can be quantified, the level of optimism bias will reduce. Future reviews of optimism bias will also take account of any inflationary increases beyond those already included.
Optimism Bias. Optimism Bias has been assessed in accordance with the Scottish Government and the HM Treasury Green Book Supplementary Guidance – Optimism Bias.
Optimism Bias. The Project Team followed HM Treasury Green Book guidance and the Risk Management guide in the Scottish Capital Investment Manual (SCIM) to determine the level of Optimism Bias that should be applied to Proposed Solutions 2, 3 & 4. The upper bound percentage was calculated by determining the build complexity, location, scope of the scheme and changes to service delivery. The team then worked through an assessment of the mitigation already carried out based on experience of previous projects and knowledge of the site in question to determine the mitigation factor to be applied to the upper bound percentage. The resulting Optimism Bias rate is summarised in the table below with further details found in Appendix D. Description Proposed Solution 2 Proposed Solution 3 Proposed Solution 4 Upper Bound % Mitigation Factor Optimism Bias %
Optimism Bias. REMOVED COMMERCIALLY SENSITIVE As the project progresses and detailed designs are developed, the level of optimism bias applied to the preferred solution will be reviewed and considered against the level of quantified risks that can be established. The expectation is that the more risks can be quantified, the level of optimism bias will reduce. Review of optimism bias will also take account of any inflationary increases.
Optimism Bias. Optimism Bias has been assessed in accordance with SGHD and HM Treasury “Green Book Supplementary Guidance – Optimism Bias”. This adjustment accounts for the tendency for project appraisers to be overly optimistic in the estimation of capital cost during a project’s early stages.
