PROJECTION ANALYSIS Sample Clauses

PROJECTION ANALYSIS. Employing the National Energy Policy 2009-2030, developments since its publication, expected changes in technology and the market, plus the role of countries such as China, Russia, India, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, Germany and the USA, the following projections are plausible: 1. Renewable energy, particularly wind and solar, will play an increasingly important role in Jamaica‟s energy mix. 2. Driven by public health, environmental and cost control reasons, commercial scale energy from waste (municipal waste, farm waste and industrial waste) will become a noted part of the energy mix by the end of 2020. The major municipal dumps, especially those in Kingston and St. Xxxxx, are routinely set ablaze by arsonists. The environmental and health impacts, especially on persons within the immediate vicinity have been decidedly negative. The practice is unsustainable and appears most likely to be resolved by employing the waste in a productive manner, one of which is energy production. 3. Small-scale energy from waste projects, at the level of households, farms and institutions, will become increasingly common, especially in rural areas if fossil fuel prices continue to increase. This approach will also increase as the country seeks to provide more of the energy it needs using its own resources. 4. The oil and gas exploration campaign will be resumed, driven by private capital, by the end of 2017. It is assumed that drilling operations will occur by 2018. 5. Coal fired plants will play a major role in rebooting segments of the industrial economic, especially alumina and cement production. Despite its environmental challenges, coal remains the cheapest major fuel source and is necessary to assist in improving the competitiveness of significant segments of the economy. 6. The continuation of concessionary bilateral fuel supply programmes such as the PetroCaribe Agreement will be central to Jamaica‟s ability to afford energy into the foreseeable future. 7. The large scale theft of electricity in some communities and the high technical losses within the JPSCo operated grid is unsustainable and must become a primary focus of both the company and the state. Wide-scale electricity theft is symptomatic of serious underlying economic problems, notably consumers‟ ability to afford the product owing to high levels of unemployment and low salaries for those employed. The utility operator needs to make the required investments to make the grid tamper proof as a central strategy in t...