Using MEPS Data for Trend Analysis. MEPS began in 1996, and the utility of the survey for analyzing health care trends expands with each additional year of data. However, it is important to consider a variety of factors when examining trends over time using MEPS. Statistical significance tests should be conducted to assess the likelihood that observed trends may be attributable to sampling variation. The length of time being analyzed should also be considered. In particular, large shifts in survey estimates over short periods of time (e.g. from one year to the next) that are statistically significant should be interpreted with caution, unless they are attributable to known factors such as changes in public policy, economic conditions, or MEPS survey methodology. Looking at changes over longer periods of time can provide a more complete picture of underlying trends. Analysts may wish to consider using techniques to smooth or stabilize analyses of trends using MEPS data such as comparing pooled time periods (e.g. 1996-97 versus 2004-05), working with moving averages, or using modeling techniques with several consecutive years of MEPS data to test the fit of specified patterns over time. Finally, researchers should be aware of the impact of multiple comparisons on Type I error. Without making appropriate allowance for multiple comparisons, undertaking numerous statistical significance tests of trends increases the likelihood of concluding that a change has taken place when one has not.
Using MEPS Data for Trend Analysis. MEPS began in 1996, and the utility of the survey for analyzing health care trends expands with each additional year of data. However, it is important to consider a variety of factors when examining trends over time using MEPS. Statistical significance tests should be conducted to assess the likelihood that observed trends may be attributable to sampling variation. The adjustment to the weight described in 3.2.3 above based on inpatient discharges potentially could affect some analyses of trends. The length of time being analyzed should also be considered. In particular, large shifts in survey estimates over short periods of time (e.g. from one year to the next) that are statistically significant should be interpreted with caution, unless they are attributable to known factors such as changes in public policy, economic conditions, or MEPS survey methodology. With respect to methodological considerations, in 2013 MEPS introduced an effort to obtain more complete information about health care utilization from MEPS respondents with full implementation in early 2014 at the start of the final rounds of data collection for 2013. This effort likely resulted in improved data quality and a reduction in underreporting in 2013, but could have some modest impact on analyses involving trends in utilization across years. There are also statistical factors to consider in interpreting trend analyses. Looking at changes over longer periods of time can provide a more complete picture of underlying trends. Analysts may wish to consider using techniques to evaluate, smooth, or stabilize analyses of trends using MEPS data such as comparing pooled time periods (e.g. 1996-97 versus 2012-13), working with moving averages, or using modeling techniques with several consecutive years of MEPS data to test the fit of specified patterns over time. Finally, researchers should be aware of the impact of multiple comparisons on Type I error. Without making appropriate allowance for multiple comparisons, undertaking numerous statistical significance tests of trends increases the likelihood of concluding that a change has taken place when one has not.
Using MEPS Data for Trend Analysis. MEPS began in 1996, and the utility of the survey for analyzing health care trends expands with each additional year of data; however, there are a variety of methodological and statistical considerations when examining trends over time using MEPS. Examining changes over longer periods of time can provide a more complete picture of underlying trends. In particular, large shifts in survey estimates over short periods of time (e.g. from one year to the next) that are statistically significant should be interpreted with caution unless they are attributable to known factors such as changes in public policy, economic conditions, or survey methodology. In 2013 MEPS survey operations introduced an effort to obtain more complete information about health care utilization from MEPS respondents with full implementation in 2014. This effort resulted in improved data quality and a reduction in underreporting in the second half of 2013 and throughout 2014. The impacts of these efforts are important to consider. Respondents reported more visits, especially non-physician visits, by sample members and the increase in the number of reported visits was especially large at the tail of the distribution. Consequently, there is a break in trend among people who are more likely to be in that tail, such as the elderly, Medicare beneficiaries, and people with multiple chronic conditions, disabilities, or poor health. In turn, spending on visits also increased, especially in the tail and for these subgroups. These increases in service use and expenditures were not uniform throughout the country, and respondents in the West South Central Census Division reported less increase in use, especially for non-minority sample members. Data users comparing service use and expenditures across states, regions, or racial and ethnic groups, particularly before and after 2013, may take this lack of uniformity into account by working in data centers, which provide access to restricted data files containing the Census Division variable. See: xxxx.xxxx.xxx/xxxx_xxxxx/xxxxxx_xxxxxxxxxx.xxx Changes to the MEPS survey instrument should also be considered when analyzing trends. For example, as a result of improved methods for collecting priority conditions data implemented in 2007, prevalence measures prior to 2007 are not comparable to those from 2007 and beyond for many of these conditions. Data users should review relevant sections of the documentation for descriptions of these types of changes before ...
Using MEPS Data for Trend Analysis. MEPS began in 1996, and the utility of the survey for analyzing health care trends expands with each additional year of data; however, there are a variety of methodological and statistical considerations when examining trends over time using MEPS. Examining changes over longer periods of time can provide a more complete picture of underlying trends. In particular, large shifts in survey estimates over short periods of time (e.g. from one year to the next) that are statistically significant should be interpreted with caution unless they are attributable to known factors such as changes in public policy, economic conditions, or survey methodology. In 2013 MEPS survey operations introduced an effort to obtain more complete information about health care utilization from MEPS respondents with full implementation in 2014. This effort resulted in improved data quality and a reduction in underreporting in the second half of 2013 and throughout 2014. Respondents tended to report more visits, especially non-physician visits, by sample members and the new approach appeared particularly effective among those subgroups with relatively large numbers of visits, such as the elderly, Medicare beneficiaries, and people with multiple chronic conditions, disabilities, or poor health. Reported spending on visits also tended to increase, especially for such subgroups. Changes to the MEPS survey instrument should also be considered when analyzing trends. For example, as a result of improved methods for collecting priority conditions data implemented in 2007, prevalence measures prior to 2007 are not comparable to those from 2007 and beyond for many of these conditions. Data users should review relevant sections of the documentation for descriptions of these types of changes before undertaking trend analyses. Analysts may also wish to consider using statistical techniques to smooth or stabilize analyses of trends using MEPS data such as comparing pooled time periods (e.g. 1996-97 versus 2011-12), working with moving averages or using modeling techniques with several consecutive years of MEPS data to test the fit of specified patterns over time. Finally, statistical significance tests should be conducted to assess the likelihood that observed trends are not attributable to sampling variation. In addition, researchers should be aware of the impact of multiple comparisons on Type I error. Without making appropriate allowance for multiple comparisons, undertaking numerous statistical...
