INSURGENCY. British Major General X.X. Xxxxxxxx was the first to conceptualize insurgency as a distinct form of warfare. According to him, insurgency comprises “rebellions and guerrilla warfare in all parts of the world where organized armies are struggling against opponents who will not meet them in the open field” (Callwell 1906, 21). His definition isolates guerrilla tactics as a critical feature of this form of warfare. In this dissertation — as in much of modern political science literature — the term insurgency denotes a sustained armed struggle between an incumbent (state) and an insurgent (non-state) actor, in which the latter resorts to violence in an attempt to achieve an overtly political aim such as secession, government takeover, or change in government policy.1 Insurgencies are distinguishable from conventional civil wars inasmuch as the non-state actor pursues its goal by way of guerrilla tactics — “a strategy of armed resistance that [. . . ] uses small, mobile groups to inflict punishment on the 1In the remainder of the text, I also refer to incumbent actors as governments. incumbent through hit-and-run strikes while avoiding direct battle when possible” (Xxxxx and Xxxxxx 2009, 70). The outcome of the incumbent’s COIN effort refers to how favorable the final allocation of the disputed good is to the counterinsurgent.2 Many scholars have noted that insurgencies are often characterized by a marked power asymmetry between incumbents and insurgents (Xxxxxxx 2006; Galula 2006; Kalyvas 2005; Merom 2003; Nagl, Petraeus, Amos and Xxxxxx 2006). Given the lop- sided nature of the contest, how can a rebel movement ever hope to achieve its aims? While innumerable theorists have expounded on how this is to be done, few works have been as influential as Xxx Xxx-xxxx’x On Guerrilla Warfare. Mao’s doctrine of revolutionary war envisions three distinct phases. In the first phase, the nascent movement is at its weakest, and hence its highest priority is to survive in the face of a superior incumbent foe. Accordingly, insurgent effort is largely clandestine and confined to building up the movement’s organizational, economic, and political capac- ities, with only sporadic guerrilla action against the state. The second phase begins once the rebel group gathers sufficient strength to be able to challenge the incum- bent’s authority in remote pockets of the countryside as well as sustain its competing claim to sovereignty. A key insurgent objective here is to undermine th...
INSURGENCY. Al-Shabaab opposed the Ethiopian military's presence in Somalia and continued an insurgency against the TFG. Throughout 2007 and 2008, Al-Shabaab scored military victories, seizing control of key towns and ports in both central and southern Somalia. By January 2009, Al-Shabaab and other Islamist militias had forced the Ethiopian troops to retreat, leaving behind an under- equipped African Union peacekeeping force to assist the Transitional Federal Government's troops. Al-Shabaab emerged as the radical youth wing of Somalia’s ICU, which controlled, for six months, Mogadishu in 2006, before being forced out by Ethiopian forces. Al-Shabaab is a militant Islamist group, based in Somalia and active elsewhere in East Africa. The group incorporates elements of Somali nationalism into its Islamist cause . Al-Shabaab is known for its brutal tactics, including suicide bombings, beheadings, and UKand other forms of violence. The group has been designated as a terrorist organization by several countries, including UAE, USA and UK. Owing to a lack of funding and human resources, an arms embargo that made it difficult to re-establish a national security force, and general indifference on the part of the international community, Xxxxx found himself obliged to deploy thousands of troops from Puntland to Mogadishu to sustain the battle against insurgent elements in the southern part of the country. Financial support for this effort was provided by the autonomous region's government. This left little revenue for Puntland's own security forces and civil service employees, leaving the territory vulnerable to piracy and terrorist attacks. On 29 December 2008, Xxxxx announced before a united parliament in Baidoa his resignation as President of Somalia. In his speech, which was broadcast on national radio, Xxxxx expressed regret at failing to end the country's seventeen-year conflict as his government had been mandated to do. He said that the Speaker of Parliament would succeed him in office per the Transitional Federal Charter (TFC). Efforts to end the transitional period: Between 31 May and 9 June 2008, representatives of Somalia's federal government and the Alliance for the Re- liberation of Somalia (ARS) participated in peace talks in Djibouti brokered by the former United Nations Special Envoy to Somalia, Xxxxxxx Xxxx-Xxxxxxxx. Parliament was subsequently expanded to 550 seats to accommodate ARS members, which then elected Sheikh Xxxxxx Xxxxxx Xxxxx, as President. To blunt ...
