Future Scenarios. The analysis of simulation results for different scenarios is aimed at assessing how the water balance of Syros will be affected by climate change and other socio-economic developments. The simulation of scenarios was based on the baseline model, incorporating climate projections provided by CMCC, and on assumptions for future socio-economic developments. Future climate projections concern temperature and precipitation data for the 2011-2050 period from the HIRHAM5 Regional Climate Model, forced by the ECHAM5 GCM for the A1B IPCC scenario. It should be noted that based on this data, natural recharge and crop irrigation requirements are calculated by the corresponding modules of the WSM DSS, and thus the corresponding results provide an integrated assessment of climate change impacts. For the purposes of future simulations, the contribution of all other water sources was considered equal to the baseline conditions. Socio-economic scenarios for Syros describe alternative futures for the island for the 2050 time horizon, and have been selected to formulate a best and a worst case alternative so as to adequately represent the range of future uncertainties. The formulation of scenarios is detailed in WASSERMed Deliverable 5.1.2. Table 4 summarizes the main scenario parameters. From the scenarios described in Table 4, the “Balanced economic development – Environmental protection (BE - EP)” and the “Unilateral economic development – Environmental degradation (UE-ED)” scenarios represent the best and worst case alternatives, and have thus been used as the basis for the simulations. Additional simulations for these two scenarios concern the potential impacts of climate change on tourism. The relevant analysis is detailed in WASSERMed Deliverable 4.3.2 (Kampragou et al., 2012), and includes the forecast of the potential direct impacts of climate change on the tourism sector of Syros. Overall, this analysis concludes that climate change can create the potential for tourism enhancement throughout the year, despite the fact that slight decreases can be expected during the summer season. Enhancement potential corresponds to the “flattening” of the tourist season towards spring and autumn; the exploitation of this potential would however require supporting changes and investments. Thus, two more scenarios were developed to simulate this type of alternative, based on the initial BE-EP and UE-ED assumptions. According to the sensitivity analysis results, tourism water dema...
Future Scenarios. This chapter will look at the future scenarios for a textile management system in 2035. The chapter starts with method following four explorative scenarios.
Future Scenarios. To investigate the training and research needs arising in the implementation of Government 3.0 services, thirteen scenarios have been developed involving the technologies and concepts presented in section 3. The aim of each scenario is to provide a realistic, but not quite yet realised way to implement the disruptive technologies for the provision of government services. This way, it is possible to look into the future, identifying the needs, which are "around the corner" and will become more pronounced as the disruptive technologies become widely adopted in government. The 13 scenarios presented in the next subsections are the following:
Future Scenarios. To support the analysis of future skills needs CWDC commissioned a piece of work in November 2006, to scope out the likely changes to the children’s workforce over the next 10 years. The project used a future scoping methodology known as scenario planning that looks at important trends and events, and imagines how they might interact in different ways to produce different results. The scenarios developed do not predict the future; instead they assist in preparing for any number of possible futures.34 Within the panoply of national and international trends that could potentially affect the children and young people’s workforce, the project focused on the following as likely to have a significant impact: • the UK’s ageing population; • the development of more integrated working; • the needs of black and minority ethnic communities; • the gender imbalance in this workforce; • the demand for services offered by the workforce; • tensions arising between the Government skills objectives, market forces and education behaviours; • young peoples’ changing attitudes towards employment. Having identified these key trends, consideration was given to the economic and social environment in which the children and young people’s workforce operates. This led to the development of four possible scenarios with a view to exploring the implications of present trends and future possibilities, for the next ten years.
