Mortality Rates. The SEER*Stat® software package,8 developed by the Information Management Services Inc. for NCI, was used to calculate both incidence and mortality rates. Rates are expressed per 100,000 population. Age-adjustment of rates was calculated by the direct method adjusting to the 2000 U.S. standard million population. Rates are rounded to the nearest 10th and very small rates (e.g., 0.04) are shown as 0.0. They are presented with the lower and upper confidence intervals computed at the 95 percent level using Tiwari method.9 Algorithms used for the calculation of standard errors and 95 percent confidence intervals are displayed in Appendix C of the state incidence report (see Illinois State Cancer Incidence and Mortality Review and Update). As mentioned above, due to NCHS policy, mortality statistics were not calculated for cells containing less than 10 deaths. This is not the case for incidence rate associated statistics. Observed variations and differences over years and across sex and race groups in cancer mortality may be real, reflecting modifications in the risk factor status of the population or the consequence of participation in screening and early detection programs. Such changes or differences, however, may not be real, but instead may be the result of random fluctuations and other factors related to the estimation process. Any conclusions should be made only after carefully considering the following factors that influence annual mortality rates. Random fluctuations in annual rates are usual and may be substantial, especially for rates based on small numbers of counts (i.e., less than 16). Population estimates used for denominators may be inaccurate or lack precision. The population data for 1990, 2000 and 2010, the years of the U.S. decennial census, are the most accurate for all age-, race-, ethnicity- and sex-specific categories and would, therefore, produce the most accurate mortality rates. Those for other years are not based on actual population counts, but rather on interpolation or extrapolation of estimates based on demographic characteristics of the population. Mortality rates based on these population estimates would be expected to be less accurate than those for 1990, 2000 or 2010. The 95 percent confidence intervals are included with reported rates to help put the rate in perspective and to facilitate rate comparisons over years and across sex, race and ethnicity/race groups. Observed differences may not be statistically significant. The ...
Mortality Rates. The loss of life in the event of large-scale flood- ing is related to the number of people in an area during the onset of a flood and can be calculated by accounting for the local characteristics and the loca- tion of people.(3,78) This research uses the total num- ber of people who are exposed during the onset of a flood and relates that to the water depth and wa- ter velocity. Literature about loss of life in case of flood shows that a first estimation of mortality rates for coastal or river flooding is about 0.1–1% of the to- tal affected population,(78,3,79) where the 0.1% is for a situation with multiple emergency measures. Other literature has shown that the probability of loss of life is also related to the local situation and age of persons(54–56) and the circumstances when people get hit.(54,57,20,80,81) To compare the loss of life for different evacua- tion strategies, different locations are defined and a mortality rate must be defined for each. No detailed functions exist or are known that relate loss of life to a specific type of location. On the basis of the literature above and expert opinion mortality rates are estimated for the Dutch situation. These mortality rates have been applied to the number of people who live in each dike ring area taking into account the consequences of evacuation. These results for the most critical dike ring are (dike ring 14) area have been compared with results of a fully probabilistic flood risk assessment for the cur- rent situation, which showed similar numbers for loss of life.(52) The expected loss of life for dike ring area 14 is within the same range. Therefore, it is concluded to be adequate for this purpose, the rates are:
