Insights from Research Paper 4. Coupling a detailed transport model to an Integrated Assessment Model In this paper, we describe the newly developed EDGE-T model and the coupling mechanism with the Integrated Assessment Model REMIND. The coupled modelling system represents a consistent framework in which competition for scarce resources (fuels, capital, CO2 emissions in a mitigation scenario), socio-economic development and transportation interact. The coupling of EDGE-T & REMIND models allows full- system scenario analysis with improved transport representation The coupling enhances global full-system IAM-based scenarios by providing a much higher level of detail for the different transportation modes and vehicle choices, and creates a consistent modelling framework that allows to represent behavioral aspects, technological options and detailed policies. We perform a diagnostic of the coupling mechanism, analyzing the quality of the convergence: results indicate that the modelling system REMIND/EDGE-T converges reliably and leads to a stable solution. Therefore, the coupled modelling system can be further used to simulate the impacts of the co- designed INNOPATHS decarbonization scenarios. Projected passenger and freight activity are found to increase while emissions are decreased (2015-2050) In a baseline scenario, the system REMIND/EDGE-T projects for Europe an increase in energy services demand of about 20% for passenger transport and 40% for freight between 2015 and 2050, in line with the EC Reference 2016 (Xxxxxx et al., 2016). Emissions from the EU transport sector decrease by 25% with respect to 2015, due to advancements in technology, energy efficiency and an increased acceptance of alternative vehicles as well as a shift to bioliquids. The market penetration of battery electric vehicles (XXX) reaches 20% of the total car fleet in 2050, while internal combustion engines (incl. hybrid) retain 75% of the total fleet. As expected and confirmed by the model, results are significantly affected by assumptions on technological development of BEVs and consumer preferences. Although the modelling system REMIND/EDGE-T already provides interesting insights on the possible development of the transport system, we see two areas where further developments would improve the tool in view of the scenario-based policy analysis, which will take place over the next steps of the INNOPATHS project. First, in the current implementation, technological and modal switching heavily depends on the initial c...
Insights from Research Paper 4. Assessing the social and distributional impacts of ambitious climate policies in EU The increased ambition of climate policies would result in large-scale economic restructuring with potential regressive distributional impacts, disproportionately affecting disadvantaged population groups, which face high energy expenditures as a share of their income combined with difficulties in accessing low-cost funding. The imposition of additional taxes on energy products would increase the risk of energy poverty and other challenges facing low-income households. In this study, the state-of-the-art GEM-E3-FIT model is further expanded to represent ten income classes in EU Member States in order to consistently capture the potential distributional impacts of energy and climate policies. Without mitigation measures, decarbonisation policy would entail regressive impacts on the income and expenditure of low-income households Distributional effects refer to how the costs and benefits of a policy are distributed among its participants, which may refer to different regions, sectors, and households. Environmental policies are usually associated with regressive distributional impacts, disproportionately affecting low-income households. The research study is based on the enhanced version of GEM-E3-FIT, which is expanded to represent ten income classes in all EU Member States, by differentiating their income sources, savings and consumption patterns. Using these methodological and modelling advancements, the socio-economic and distributional impacts of the EU Green Deal policies and targets are assessed until 2050. Ambitious climate policies affect employment and labour income in European countries, showing a limited reduction in low-skilled labour demand combined with an increase in high-skilled jobs required for the low-carbon transition. This raises negative distributional impacts through the labour market leading to higher inequality levels, as quantified with the Gini and S80/S20 indexes. The implementation of the EU Green Deal targets would also increase the energy-related expenditure in households, especially for those of low-income, raising the issues of energy poverty and energy affordability as these income classes already spend a large share of their income to purchase energy services and equipment. Negative social impacts to low-income households can be alleviated with appropriate use of ETS revenues Ignoring such distributional effects may result in limited social ...
